South African Open First-Round Leader Tips: Look to Luiten

• 40/1 Joost Luiten is a regular fast starter

• 50/1 Wilco Nienaber should enjoy this test

• Big-hitting Rupert Kaminski is a play at 150/1

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Weather forecast for Thursday: It's a warm and cloudy day at Blair Atholl Golf Estate with temperatures peaking perhaps just short of 90 degrees in the afternoon. There is little wind to speak of (5-8mph) so there doesn't appear to be any weather bias. That allows us to pick freely.

Jump in for Joost

Joost Luiten had to finish third at the Portugal Masters to keep his card but came up just short, ending his week on the Algarve in tied seventh.

But he said on his own website that his ranking of 126^th and status as a six-time winner would get him plenty of invites and overall there was nothing to be too down about.

Luiten opened in Portugal with a 63 to sit second after 18 holes and fast starts are starting to become a theme.

The Dutchman had also ended day one of his previous two starts in the top 10 (Mallorca Open and Andalucia Masters) while he was second after 18 holes of September's Italian Open and the first-round leader of his home Dutch Open in May.

Luiten has eight top 12s in South African events so this is a good part of the world for him.

An early starter at 07.10, back him at 40/1 to lead the way on Thursday.

Nienaber can nail early birdies

Wilco Nienaber is a massive talent although he's had some mixed times in 2022.

At the moment his lack of consistency makes him a better first-round leader punt than an outright pick and that was on show again in his latest start.

Nienaber returned to home soil and started with a 67 to sit ninth after the opening lap of the Joburg Open last week and after another 67 kept him in the top 10 at halfway, he dropped back to finish tied 24th.

This week's course, Blair Atthol, can play to a whopping 8,161 yards but while altitude and past results at the track ease the fears for non-bombers a little, Nienaber's ability to crush his ball a mile must surely help.

He's been in the top 10 after 18 holes in three of his last five starts in South Africa so is always worth a look in this market when teeing it up on his own turf.

Nienaber, who goes off at 11.40, is 50/1 for FRL.

Kaminski can crush it

I've had a look at the local Sunshine Tour's Driving Distance stats to try and find inspiration for the final pick.

And one player who comes into the crosshairs is Rupert Kaminski.

The South African is 9th in DD so, in theory, has the weapons for this course.

The theory becomes reality when noting that he played in the Blair Atholl Championship last October and finished in tied 10th.

Not only that, his opening 66 gave him the first-round lead and he was still in front at halfway.

Kaminski's latest efforts have been hit and miss but he was fifth after day one of the Vodacom Origins - Final just three starts ago and generally he's a quick starter.

Give him a whirl at 150/1 from his 07.40 tee-time.