Dave Tindall racked up more profits last week as all three of his tips finished in the top six. and he's back with three more each-way selections for this week's PGA Tour event in Las Vegas...
"Scheffler was going well in this event last year when opening with a pair of 67s before fading. But he's a different animal this time (now 52 places higher in the world rankings) and can push hard for victory."
Main Bet: Scottie Scheffler each-way @ 28/1
The knee-jerk response to seeing that Kevin Na gained 14.175 strokes putting when winning here last year is to presume what you suspected all along: TPC Summerlin can be reduced to a putting contest.
But sifting through the stats and it seems that Na's performance was more of an outlier.
The SG: Putting figures of the three previous champions were 45th, 32nd and 39th. Oh!
In addition, Na ranked 54th in SG: Off The Tee and 54th for 55th SG: Tee To Green.
But runner-up Patrick Cantlay was 1st and 2nd in those two categories while the year before the podium finishers were 6th, 2nd and 9th respectively for Off The Tee and 1, 2 and 3 for Tee To Green.
In other words, it definitely does matter what you do off the tee, and Tee To Green is a more reliable measure than SG: Putting.
Other angles I like are Par 4 Performance and an ability to shoot low numbers.
Two of the last four champions ranked 1st for Par 4 Scoring (Rod Pampling -13 in 2017 and Bryson DeChambeau -12 in 2019).
And if you look at the round scores, in five of the last eight years the winner has posted a 62 or lower.
Scottie Scheffler fired a ridiculous 59 at The Northern Trust so knows how to shoot the lights out while in recent starts his SG: Tee To Green rankings include 1st (Tour Championship), 2nd (Northern Trust) and 5th (WGC-St. Jude).
His Off The Tee stats are consistently excellent too and he's ranked in the top 14 in that category in six of his last seven starts.
Par 4s? He was 3rd for Par 4 Birdie Or Better Leaders last season and 7th overall in Birdie Average.
After second place at the Tour Championship following top fours in the PGA and Northern Trust, it was clear he was in fantastic form.
So that's why it was doubly disappointing to miss the US Open after testing positive for COVID-19.
He talked about that when pegging it up in last week's Sanderson Farms Championship where he showed rust after four weeks off in a first round 73 but recovered to finish T37.
"It definitely stunk sitting at home all week watching the US Open, especially the way I was playing leading into it. I felt like I had a good chance of winning.
"It stunk, but it's the world we live in. I felt okay, so very blessed to have felt good through all of it and came out on the other side recovered, so all good."
After a superb rookie season, the only thing that's missing is a win and he has the right numbers to get it here.
Scheffler was going well in this event last year when opening with a pair of 67s before fading. But he's a different animal this time (now 52 places higher in the world rankings) and can push hard for victory at 28/1.
Next Best: Doc Redman each-way @ 70/1
Doc Redman was 25/1 for last week's Sanderson Farms Championship and close to selection.
But despite the much stronger field here, I'm happy to play him at nearly three times the price.
Redman didn't do much wrong (T28 featuring three 70s and a closing 69) at the Sanderson Farms and his top 30 added to a pair of top threes in his previous three starts.
He ranked in the top 15 for both Off The Tee and Tee To Green last week and was 30th and 37th in those two metrics last season.
Moving onto his Par 4 numbers and he was 13th in Par 4 Birdie Or Better Leaders last season and sits in 6th in 2020/21.
As for the low scores that he might need here, there's plenty of recent evidence there.
Redman fired middle rounds of 64 and 63 at the Wyndham and closed the Safeway Open last month with a 62.
He had a first look at TPC Summerlin last year and made a decent fist of it with laps of 70-67-65-70.
With moderate breezes forecast, he'll have the conditions to rack up the birdies again (11th in Birdie Average this season and 45th last).
The 70/1 looks a good each-way punt.
Jumping back to the front of the betting and there are plenty with obvious chances.
But I'm willing to let Bryson DeChambeau (7/1), Webb Simpson (10/1), Patrick Cantlay (16/1) and Tony Finau (18/1) go.
US PGA champ Collin Morikawa at 20s is interesting given that he's a Vegas resident.
For all his strong play of late I don't have Harris English down as a better player than Scheffler so much prefer the latter's 28/1 to the former's 25s.
Final Bet: Brendan Steele each-way @ 80/1
West Coast man Brendan Steele posted a 62 in the Travelers Championship when sixth and he opened the Safeway Open - his most recent event - with a 65.
That's the low scores box ticked.
The Californian ranked 39th Tee To Green last season and 16th for Approach while he was 19th for Par 4 Birdie Or Better Leaders. All good.
At TPC Summerlin, he played the Par 4s in -10 last year so I like the fact he can score well on this particular set of them.
While his final finishing position of T29 wasn't amazing, he finished 68-65 and previously he'd posted a couple of top 16s at the course.
Steele finished the previous campaign in solid form as highlighted by T22 at the PGA Championship and he admits he likes the wipe the slate clean element of a new season, hence his back-to-back victories in the Safeway in 2016 and 2017.
Driving the ball well has become more important at TPC Summerlin in recent years and that's one of the 37-year-old's strengths.
His stats look a good match for success and I'll take the 80/1.
For a three-figure price, I'd look to Kevin Streelman and Stewart Cink.
Streelman can go on birdie blitzes, is a former runner-up here and took third at the Safeway Open two starts ago.
Cink followed up his shock win at the Safeway with T12 at the Sanderson Farms and his Tee To Green numbers in those two events were superb.
The former Open winner has a third at TPC Summerlin and was T15 on his last visit in 2016.
Dave's 2020/2021 P/L
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89