After a profitable Ryder Cup, Dave Tindall returns to strokeplay action for an event that has twice yielded 100/1 winners for his Betfair column, the Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi...
"With a second and a sixth in August along with a series of low rounds in recent events, I'm happy to chance Sloan at 150s."
Main Bet: Roger Sloan each-way @ 151.0150/1
Victory for Sergio Garcia in the 2020 Sanderson Farms suggests this is perhaps a good opportunity for a big gun to pick up a win when his main rivals are absent or not fully tuned in.
But Garcia's win with 19-under in 2020 is the outlier as the previous six editions since the event moved to the Country Club of Jackson in 2014 went to players without a previous PGA Tour win.
Those half-dozen were Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble (another 100/1 winner for the column), Ryan Armour, Cameron Champ and Sebastian Munoz, their winning scores ranging from -16 to -21.
Birdies are certainly needed on the 7,461-yard par 72 and I've enjoyed some good success at this event by following a couple of straightforward trends.
Sedgefield Country Club, the host of the Wyndham Championship, offers some fruitful correlation and it makes sense as, like Jackson, both layouts features Champion Bermuda and some of the visuals are the same too.
It's certainly paid off to look at players who shot low rounds there a couple of months earlier and, overall, examples of recent scores in the low 60s, earn a tick.
Good driving is another pointer. Sergio ranked 1st for SG: Off The Tee last year while nine of the first 11 home ranked in the top 20 for that category.
Rewind to 2019 and the top five all ranked in the top 10 for Off The Tee.
First on my rather unlikely team is Canada's Roger Sloan.
He's a good driver of the ball (62nd Off The Tee last season) and shot a pair of 64s in the middle two rounds of the Wyndham Championship where he finished runner-up.
Prior to that Sloan ended 66-65 to take sixth in the Barracuda Championship and that followed an opening 64 and tied 16th in the 3M Open.
Sloan is yet to win on the PGA Tour so he fits that trend too.
Clearly there must be a couple of negatives to be seeing him at 150/1 and it's true he's missed his last two cuts.
The first was in the Northern Trust due to a poor first round while he suffered an early exit in the Fortinet Championship a couple of weeks ago although would have made it through with birdies at the closing par 5s at 16 and 18.
He also missed his first two cuts here but they were back in 2014 and 2018. Last year he opened with 67, shot all four rounds under par and took tied 32nd.
With a second and a sixth in August along with a series of low rounds in recent events, I'm happy to chance him at 150s.
Next Best: Sepp Straka each-way @ 126.0125/1
Sepp Straka is still looking for his first win and it's probably going to come in an event where you need to shoot low.
The Austrian's one win on the second tier came when he fired 22-under to win the KC Golf Classic.
And last year on the PGA Tour he ranked 26th for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders - there are four Par 5s at Jackson - and 43rd for Birdie Average (just outside the top 20%).
The next test to pass is recent examples of low rounds.
They can be found with an opening 63 in the Olympic men's golf tournament where he finished tied 10th and a closing 64 at the correlation-friendly Wyndham Championship two weeks later.
Like Sloan he's missed cuts at The Northern Trust and the Fortinet Championship on his last two starts but Straka's most recent two top 10s on the PGA Tour came after missed cuts so he's not one to telegraph his good weeks.
This is all looking good so far but then we arrive at course form: MC-MC-MC.
That's not ideal obviously but four of his six rounds were under par and it's worth noting that Ryan Armour had course form of MC-MC before he popped up to win for this column at 100/1 in 2017.
Armour had shot rounds of 61 and 64 at Wyndham two months earlier and had a couple of big finishes before a missed cut at Silverado (Fortinet venue).
There are strong echoes there with the recent exploits of both Straka and Sloan so let's believe in the process! Back Straka at 125/1.
Final Bet: Stephan Jaeger each-way @ 101.0100/1
For my final pick, I looked at several players with plenty of strong Korn Ferry form.
They included 80/1 shots Taylor Moore and Chad Ramey (backed down from 100s), along with David Lipsky at 125/1. Lipsky was tied 22nd at the Fortinet.
But the one I like best is Stephan Jaeger at 100/1.
If it's examples of low rounds I want, the German is famous for once shooting a 58 in the Web.com's Ellie Mae Classic. He won that event with 30-under!
That's one of an impressive haul of six wins on the second tier, his latest Korn Ferry success coming as recently as April's Emerald Coast Classic where he closed with a pair of 66s before beating Lipsky in a playoff.
After second places in May's Knoxville Open and June's Rex Hospital Open, the 32-year-old from Munich had another hot-streak in August where he went 4-4-2 in three Korn Ferry Tour starts.
In the most recent, he opened with a 63 at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship while he fired a Saturday 64 in the Boise Open.
Looking back to his runner-up finish in the Knoxville Open, he went on one of his birdie blitzes on the first two days by starting 64-62. There's also a 63 to be found in his second place at the Rex Hospital.
While he didn't make the cut in the Fortinet Championship, he fired a second-round 70 at Silverado and perhaps there was some rust in his opening 75 after three weeks off.
Jaeger has made two of his last three cuts in this event and that included tied 14th in 2018 when he closed with two 67s.
He's not exactly a great driver of the ball but it's not a course full of trouble and I'm hoping his hot short game can propel him to victory.
It's certainly reassuring that he knows what to do when in contention, his tally of six Korn Ferry wins the joint-second highest in history.
Dave's P/L for 2021/22
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89