Portugal Masters First-Round Leader Tips: Warren to shine early

• Marc Warren can strike from his morning tee-time
• Renato Paratore has extra incentive this week
• Fast-starting Gavin Green can go low again

Weather forecast for Thursday: The prediction for day one suggests sunshine and a gentle breeze. Winds may be a little lighter in the morning - 4mph compared to 8-9mph and a few gusts after lunch -so I'll pick two from the a.m. wave and one p.m. starter.

Marc can make hay

Marc Warren has endured a few difficult seasons in recent times but there are no such worries about his card or a harrowing return to Q-School this year.

This is the last counting event for those hoping to secure their playing privileges but Warren, at 96th, is safe.

He's wrapped things up after a good run on the Spanish Swing where he made all three cuts and posted a tied eighth in the Open de Espana.

Now the Scot can freewheel at this event and it's a venue where he's shone before.

Warren was runner-up in 2017 after a tied 12th the year before and he's now made seven straight cuts at Dom Pedro Victoria GC.

As for this market, the veteran was first-round leader in 2016 after a 63 and he's twice shot 64 since then.

Strong starts were a theme in Spain recently and he was in the top 10 after 18 holes at both the Andalucia Masters and Mallorca Golf Open.

Warren is striking the ball beautifully with his approaches and if the putts drop the 80/1 shot can challenge for the R1 lead from his 08.10 tee time.

Pick Paratore

By contrast, Renato Paratore does have card concerns and starts the week in 122nd on the Race to Dubai and five places outside the magical top 117.

But at least he's heading in the right direction as the regular season comes to a close.

The Italian went 13-32-23 through the Spanish Swing and actually had back-to-back top four finishes in August.

At this course he's got some useful form too and, notably, it's based on fast starts.

Paratore opened with 66s in both 2018 and 2019 and finished day one sixth and fifth respectively.

Back him to thrive early again from his 08.00 tee-time.

Go for Green

My afternoon pick is Gavin Green at 50s.

The Malaysian, who has some Portuguese roots, has really come back to form after a slump.

He started that revival with a second place at August's International Series Singapore, an Asian PGA Tour event, and followed it by finishing runner-up at the Czech Masters.

Green has made every cut since and added 11th place in last week's Mallorca Golf Open where he set out with a 66. That put him sixth after day one while two starts earlier he sat fourth after 18 holes of the Italian Open.

Green has only played this event twice but last year he found Dom Pedro Victoria to his liking and a first-round 66 left him third after day one before he finished tied 17th.

The 50/1 shot tees off at 13.10.