- George Coetzee won last week and can thrive again
- Gavin Green has had a string of recent fast starts
- Scott Jamieson has a great FRL record in S Africa
Weather forecast for Thursday: After rain in the build-up, the prediction for day one suggests sunshine, clear skies and a gentle 5-7mph breeze.
Tee-times don't really have much of an impact as everyone heads out within a two-hour time slot. That's due to a reduced 66-man field split into three-balls heading out from the 1st and 10th.
Get with George
On first glance, George Coetzee doesn't appear to have the course form you might expect for one of South Africa's better players.
He's played Gary Player Country Club 10 times competetively on either the DP World Tour or local Sunshine Tour and not managed better than 12th.
But scratch below the surface and he was seventh after day one the last time the Nedbank Golf Challenge was played in 2019 and he's been second and fourth respectively after 18 holes there in 2014 and 2016.
Last year when it staged the South African Open he didn't start fast but jumped 46 spots to 17th on day two thanks to a 4-under 68.
There's enough there to think that, in his current form, he can set the early pace this week.
Coetzee is coming off a win at the South African PGA Championship last week where he had a piece of the first-round lead thanks to a 67.
Back in August, Coetzee opened with a 61 at the Vodacom Orgins - De Zalze, another tourament he won, while he's since had 18-hole positions of seventh (Crans), 10th (Wentworth) and 11th (Le Golf National) on classic courses on the DP World Tour.
He's a must FRL play (1/5, 6 places) at 40/1 in a field of just 66.
Go with Green
Gavin Green is one of the form horses going to South Africa after three second places in his last eight starts.
The first was on the Asian Tour, the second at the Czech Masters a week later and the latest in the Portugal Masters last time out.
In particular, Green has become popular with first-round leader punters in that run due to his repeatedly fast starts.
Across those eight events, he's ended day one in the top seven on five occasions and over an even shorter study period his last four 18-hole positions read: 4-6-72-4.
All that's needed is a bit of South African form and he has that too.
Green was tied 21st on his last start at the Nedbank while on his last two appearances in South Africa, he's finished the opening lap in 10th and fifth respectively.
Side with Scott
Scott Jamieson is something of a standing dish in South African events and he's racked up five top 10s and a further three top 25s in his last 12 starts in this part of the globe.
Good first rounds have been part of the deal too and he has the same excellent record over those dozen events, finishing round one in the top 10 five times.
On his debut at Sun City, a 68 put him second after the first circuit and he was 13th when day one was in the books on his last visit in 2020.
At the start of 2022, he was the first-round leader at both the Abu Dhabi Championship and the Ras al Khaimah Championship while he's ended the first round in the top four twice in his last seven starts.
That's certainly sufficient to justify a FRL bet at 50s.
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