The Mayakoba Golf Classic is the final full-field PGA Tour event of 2020 and Dave Tindall is aiming to end the season in style with three big priced each-way selections...
"Long won ahead of schedule when capturing the Desert Classic in 2019 on just his sixth PGA Tour start but he's had plenty of weeks since when proving it was no fluke."
Main Bet: Adam Long each-way @ 70/1
The final PGA Tour event of an unprecedented calendar year takes us back to Mexico.
And there are plenty of reassuring hooks for punters to base their bets on.
Often these events require what we'd term mid-ranking players going off at shorter odds that usual.
But, as well as adding a welcome sheen of quality, the presence of Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka gives some nice prices elsewhere as those two major winners take a chunk out of the market.
The usual checklist here is good iron play, strong par 4 scoring and performance on similar style tracks of which there are many.
We seem to have had a raft of them of late and Robert Streb beating Kevin Kisner in a playoff at the RSM Classic two weeks ago came as no surprise. They were the 'right' sort of players for the task in hand.
The one I'll put up first is Adam Long.
Let's ignore the clever correlations for a while and just point out the very basic fact that he was runner-up here last year!
That followed a top six on his previous visit to Mexico in a Korn Ferry event.
Okay, as to the other form that translates well, Long was fifth at the Corales Puntacana six starts ago where he ranked seventh for Putting Average. The obvious link to this week is that both have Paspalum grass.
Long won ahead of schedule when capturing the Desert Classic in 2019 on just his sixth PGA Tour start but he's had plenty of weeks since when proving it was no fluke.
Last year's second here was one but, more recently, he was runner-up at the 3M Open, tied 13th at the US Open, fifth (as mentioned) in the Corales Puntacana and 11th at the Houston Open just two starts ago.
As for recent iron play, he was ranked in the top eight for greens in regulation in both Houston and the RSM Classic (T30).
If his putter heats up a little on greens he likes (fourth for PA here last year), the Duke man is very capable of getting in the mix again at appealing odds of 70/1.
Next Best: Charles Howell III each-way @ 66/1
Charles Howell III isn't everyone's cup of tea due to his lack of wins down the years but he's 66/1 here so a valid each-way punt.
Starting with course form, it's coming out of his ears. Chucky Three Sticks has no less than eight top 20s and that includes three top sevens in the last seven years.
Very much a horses-for-courses type, Howell also has a ridiculous 10 top 10s at the Sony Open which shows just how much he likes these sort of coastal challenges.
More evidence? Five top nines in 10 starts at Torrey Pines.
He's been solid rather than spectacular since golf returned in June which is very Howell-like.
But he's yet to play one of his favourite tracks in that run so I'm hoping a return to this course will provide a spark.
To be honest, he's not far away. CH3 was tied 34th in Vegas, a solid enough T40 at The Masters and then shot three good rounds and a dodgy one (66-67-72-65) at the RSM Classic last time.
That event (correlation klaxon!) gave him his most recent win on the PGA Tour in 2018 and he ranked second for greens in regulation at Sea Island two weeks ago.
He didn't putt great there but prior to that he'd ranked in the top 10 for SG: Putting in three of his four previous measured events.
In short, Howell has plenty of confidence in the flatstick and two of his three best putting performances here have come in the last four visits.
If playing someone near the front end I've always had a feeling that Abraham Ancer would one day win his home event.
He's made the top 10 in two of the last three runnings and was great for the first three days of The Masters before dropping to T13.
Ancer is 16/1.
Final Bet: Brian Stuard each-way @ 150/1
As a big-priced outsider I'll turn to Brian Stuard at a massive 150/1.
The 37-year-old has made a reputation for himself on these sort of courses.
Here at El Camaeleon, he was runner-up on his first two visits - in 2010 and 2013. He added ninth in 2017 and shot a Saturday 64 when again making the top 25 last year.
The Sony Open is another event that correlates strongly with this event - four players have won both in recent times - and Stuard has an excellent record there.
He's made the top eight in four of his last seven starts at Waialae so, with eight places on offer with Betfair, he's been a huge hit with each-way punters.
You won't find much in his recent form on first glance beyond a notable third place in the Safeway Open in September.
But at the RSM Classic (another of those events worth checking) last time, he shot a 63 in round two and closed with a 67.
In doing so, he recorded his best Strokes Gained: Approach numbers since... the Sony Open (of course!) in January.
He's no world beater and the putter needs to get going a bit but Stuard is capable of running into a place in events like this and he'd be much shorter with an obvious good recent finish under his belt.
Tied 50th last time at the RSM wasn't that but, as noted, behind the bare finish he had some useful numbers and that 63 when he looked like missing the cut will surely act as a boost.
He'll be playing from the fairway on almost every shot so hopefully his irons can stay sharp.
Dave's 2020/2021 P/L
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89