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Celtic Manor correlation a big consideration
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As highlighted in my preview, six of the eight Open de France winners before 2013, and both the last two victors, have been matched at a triple-figure price before the off, so another outsider lifting the trophy is certainly feasible and I've picked out three to back this year.
There's more than one way to skin a cat and there are plenty of ways to play a golf tournament before the off.
Alex Bjork has been very consistent throughout the year, he ticks all the correct statistical boxes, and he's highly likely to contend around Le Golf National for the fourth time.
The Swede finished third and eighth on his first two visits and he sat second after round one last year before sliding down the leaderboard to finish 20th.
I'm not about to criticise anyone that wants to play him each-way at around the 20/121.00 mark, especially given how generous the each-way terms are now, but I prefer to play players like Bjork in the place market alone.
He's only ever won once and that was five years ago so taking the 3.55/2 about him finishing inside the top-ten makes more sense, or even swerving him completely for someone with a completely different profile...
It's all there in front of you with someone like Bjork and he has to be priced up fairly short as he's so consistent, but I prefer backing prolific winners that contend seldomly, or even better, a multiple winner that's just found something that the market may not have reacted to properly.
Last week's winner, Ryan Fox, went off at a generous 65.064/1 despite having finished third in Ireland the week before as many a punter considered that - that could well be a flash in the pan and it's a similar story this week with my first fancy, Callum Shinkwin, who contended strongly at Wentworth, having played poorly for months previously.
Sudden spikes in form are often overlooked and that appears to be the case with Shinkwin, who's been matched at as high as 150.0149/1 this week, despite a very eye-catching performance.
After nine missed cuts in-a-row and a 61st placed finish in Ireland, Shinkwin found his game in style in Surrey, ranking fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and eighth for both SG: Approach and Around the Green.
He didn't putt especially well and he messed up the 71st hole when still in with a slim chance of victory but his seventh at Wentworth is something he can definitely build on.
Shinkwin won the Cazoo Open, formerly the Wales Open, at Celtic Manor by an impressive four strokes last year and the three winners of that event between 2010 and 2012 - Graeme McDowell, Alex Noren and Thongchai Jaidee - have all won here at Le Golf National.
Shinkwin doesn't have sparkling form here, reading 9-66-W-48 but that debut effort shows it's a venue that suits his eye if he's playing well.
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
England's James Morrison is playing here for the 12th time, and he has a mixed bag of course form but he was seventh in 2011 and second in 2015 and I thought he was a fair price at 240.0239/1 after last week's tied 18th at Wentworth.
Morrison did the column a favour two years ago when he was matched at odds-on at the Hero Open and he was also a pick when he was one of six men tied for the lead with a round to go at the British Masters in July.
He faded to 28th on Sunday at the Belfry and with only two DP World Tour titles to his name, he hasn't won the number of events his obvious talent deserves but I was happy to chance him here at a big price.
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
My third and final pick is the 2021 Cazoo Open winner at Celtic Manor, Nacho Elvira, who's yet to shine here.
The Spaniard has course form figures reading MC-MC-50-53-MC, but he's shot three rounds in the 60s here and he's shown glimpses of late.
He was an unlucky playoff loser at the Made In HimmerLand in July and he ended the first round tied for the lead at the Omega European Masters at the beginning of the month.
Bizarrely, he was one of two men to miss the cut that week after tying the lead after day one in Switzerland (John Axelsen also shot 63-75 to miss the cut) and one could argue that he's not one to go to war with but that's all in the price at over 500/1501.00.
And besides, with a little bit better fortune, the 36-year-old from Madrid could be a four-time DP World Tour winner given his defeat in extra time to Rasmus Hojgaard in July was his third loss in a DP World Tour playoff.
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
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