Find Me a 100 Winner: Doha form puts Wilson in the frame

• Is an outsider due to win the Nedbank?
• Guido to enjoy the tough test in South Africa
• Hughes can go in again at a price

The DP World Tour visits South Africa this week for the penultimate event of the season - the Nedbank Challenge - and the PGA Tour returns to Texas for the Houston Open, where outsiders have fared quite well.

As highlighted in my main preview, longshots haven't got a great record at the Nedbank Challenge. For much of the tournament's history, however, there's only been 12 players in the line-up and since the fields have been expanded, we've seen a couple of near misses by some huge outsiders.

In the last edition in 2019, pre-event 100.099/1 shot Markus Kinhult lost a playoff to Tommy Fleetwood. In 2017, 400.0399/1 shot Scott Jamieson, who Dave Tindall fancies to start nicely this week, finished second by a stroke. The runner-up in 2016 Jeunghun Wang, a pre-event 240.0239/1 chance, hit a low of 1.330/100 in-running . So, although fancied players have been taking the title, there's plenty of evidence to suggest we might be due a longshot winning around the Gary Player Country Club.

Guido just too big for a tough test

I was originally going to have just the one selection in the Nedbank Challenge, but I can't resist taking 120.0119/1 about the recent Open de France winner, Guido Migliozzi, who won two tournaments in fairly quick succession in 2019.

The 25-year-old Italian won the Kenya Open in March and the Belgian Knockout in June three years ago and there wasn't a top-20 finish between the two wins.

Guido's form is very in-and-out (he's missed his last two cuts since he won in Paris) but he knows how to get the job done and plays well around tough tracks, as both his victory in France and his US Open form demonstrates. He's played in two US Opens, finishing fourth and 14th. The tricky Gary Player Country Club should suit his eye.

Guido finished 21st in his only previous appearance in the event back in 2019 but he took to the place immediately - sitting third after a 67 in round one.

Form at the Open de France transfers to this venue nicely. If three-time Nedbank winner Lee Westwood had got the better of the 2012 winner Martin Kaymer in Paris in 2009, Guido would have been attempting to become the third Open de France winner in-a-row to win the Nedbank and the fourth in five renewals!

Back 2u Guido Migliozzi @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Doha form puts Wilson in the frame

Not for the first time, I find myself in agreement with Matt Cooper, who makes a strong case for the recent Made In HimmerLand winner Oliver Wilson.

Wilson's 30th on debut in 2019 could and should have been a better result given he sat fourth with a round to go.

The Englishman has ticked over nicely since he won in Denmark, he has some decent form in South Africa and also has fair form at Doha - home of the Qatar Masters.

As highlighted in the preview, form at Doha and the Gary Player Country Club corelates nicely so Wilson's Doha form figures, reading 20-64-5-12-69-MC-68-2-12 put him in with a shout here at a humongous price.

Back 1u Oliver Wilson @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Mackenzie the man in Houston

Outsiders have had very little success on the PGA Tour in 2022 but, as highlighted in the preview, the Houston Open has been a good event for longshots. The one I like here is the only man to win at a triple-figure price on the PGA Tour since May - Mackenzie Hughes.

There was a lot to like about the way he beat Sepp Straka in extra-time a month ago in the Sanderson Farms Championship and he improved his score in every round when finishing 23rd in Japan in the ZOZO Championship in his only subsequent start.

This is the 31-year-old Canadian's third appearance at Memorial Park and he's shown a liking for the venue.

Hughes finished only 29th 12 months ago but he signed off the 2020 edition with a sensational 63 to finish seventh and another bold showing this week is possible.

The 120.0119/1 available looks huge given he's in form and generally no bigger than 66/1 on the high street.

Back 2u Mackenzie Hughes @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Steve's 2022 Find Me a 100 Winner P&L

Staked: 236 units
Returned: 100 units
P/L: -136 units

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter