Golf Tips: Best bets for this week's American Express and Dubai Desert Classic

• Steve Rawlings previews and provides weekend in-play blog

• Check out Steve's outsiders to back at 100/1101.00 and bigger

• Dave Tindall aims to follow up 40/141.00 win with three more tips

• Andy Swales brings course info and form players

American Express tips and predictions

The Punter's Preview: Back in-form Gerard at 74/175.00

Steve Rawlings: The one I like is the bang-in-form world number 30, Ryan Gerard, who travelled halfway around the world just before Christmas to muscle his way into the US Masters. Needing to end 2025 inside the world's top 50, Gerard entered the final event of the year, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour, where he lost in a playoff when a fourth-place finish would have sufficed.

Clearly buoyed by the prospect of his first visit to Augusta, Gerard finished solo second last week at the Sony Open where he ranked 11^th for both Greens In Regulation and Putting Average. He's already a winner in his home state of California, having won the Barracuda Championship in July last year and the rapidly improving 26-year-old appears to be a very fair price at 75.0. 

This is Gerard's second appearance in the event following a tied 51^st finish 12 months ago.

Each-way Picks: Bet on Berger at 50/151.00

Dave Tindall: Daniel Berger won the other West Coast pro-am at Pebble Beach in 2021 (also 10th and fifth on his previous two visits) while in this event he has consistent form of 12-29-39-21. Berger was eighth with a round to play last time.

Last week he produced a fast-finishing sixth place at the Sony Open (Sunday 64) and ranked 18th for SG: Putting and 13th for Approach - ideal numbers for this test where you need to set up numerous chances and convert plenty.

Drilling down a little, he was 15th for Approaches from 50-125 yards and that range crops up time and time again on these courses. Finally, he has the favourable rotation of La Quinta-Nicklaus-Stadium so all the pieces are in place for a big week.

The American Express 2026: Course and current form stats

Course Form Pick:

The American finished fifth here last year and, at a venue where he has three other top 10 finishes, including runner-up in 2021, has to be a player to have onside. He hails from California and will want to impress in his home state.

Dubai Desert Classic tips and predictions

The Punter's Preview: Rory the straightforward selection

Steve Rawlings: Rory McIlroy's first three visits to the Emirates resulted in two missed cuts and a tied 52^nd but since 2009 his form figures here read a staggeringly good 1-6-10-5-9-1-6-2-3-1-1-4. With four wins and 12 consecutive top 10s, it's stating the obvious to say the venue suits his eye and he's impossible to ignore at odds in excess of 4/1.

There's no First Round Leader Market on the Sportsbook yet but anything in double-figures will be worth taking given his penchant for a fast start in the region. In addition to leading here after round one four times, he led the second edition of the Dubai Invitational after 18 holes last week, just as he'd done two years prior in the inaugural edition of the biannual event.

He loves a fast start in Dubai, leading or sharing the lead six times after round one, but he's only gone on to win once when he's been leading or co-leading after 18 holes, so he makes for a fantastic back-to-lay vehicle.

First Round Leader Tips: Bet on wily old Fox at 55/156.00

Dave Tindall: It's tempting to keep it simple and have a win only bet on Rory McIlroy given that he's a four-time FRL in this event and also set the pace with a 66 in last week's Dubai Invitational.

He even has the ideal tee-time of 08:05 alongside Ryder Cup colleagues Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton but the 12s has been cut to 10s and that's just a bit short.

Instead I'll have an each-way punt on Ryan Fox at 55/156.00. The Kiwi has played lots of good golf in the wind and tees off in the group after McIlroy at 08:15.

He couldn't get it out of second gear when 27th in last week's Dubai Invitational but hopefully that will act as decent prep for this.

Fox was the first-round leader at last month's Australian Open via a 65 and fifth on Thursday's closing leaderboard at the Aussie PGA the week before.

Last year in this event he sat ninth after the opening lap and fourth with a round to play before finishing 10th. He's also been FRL at another UAE event, the 2022 Ras al Khaimah Classic, thanks to a 63.

Dubai Long Odds Tip: Back Laurie Canter at 120.0119/1

• A dubai-based Englishmen and a pair of Alabamians feature

• Read my Dubai Desert Classic preview here 

• Read My American Express preview here

• For the latest Betfair golf odds click here

• Click here for more golf tips for upcoming tournaments

As highlighted in the Dubai Desert Classic preview, I'm keen on the chances of the four-time winner and pre-event favourite, Rory McIlory, and this has been a tournament where the well-fancied runners have prospered of late.

Only two of the last 10 winners have gone off at a triple-figure price and the last four victors have gone off at 10/111.00 or shorter but I've picked out one here at a juicy price.

The two-time major winner, Dustin Johnson, looks a huge price given he should take to the venue and Poland's Adrian Meronk looks big given his course form numbers read 4-MC-2-MC but for my sole selection in Dubai, I'm plumping for another LIV golfer, their latest recruit - Laurie Canter.

Dubai Desert Classic bet - Laurie Canter @ 120.0119/1

Steve Rawlings: The 36-year-old Englishman, Laurie Canter, who won next week's event, the Bahrain Championship, 12 months ago, again showed his liking for desert golf when he earnt a PGA Tour card with a third place finish at the DP World Championship in November around the Earth Course in Dubai, but instead of heading off across the Pond, Canter has elected to replace the relegated Henrik Stenson on the Majesticks Team on the LIV Tour, where he made 21 appearances between 2022 and 2024.

With the likes of Richard Bland, in 2022, Patrick Read, in 2023, and the aforementioned Meronk, in 2024, all finishing second here, and last year's edition, going the way of Tyrrell Hatton, this has already been an event in which LIV golfers have performed with plenty of credit, and having finished third 12 months ago, Canter looks a very fair price at triple-figures given he's no bigger than 66/167.00 on the High Street.

Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2026: Course and current form stats

Course Form Pick:

The defending champion was knocking on the door here before he won 12 months ago, finishing fourth in 2022 and 22nd the year before.

Now read an early preview of US Masters 2026 with three bets from Dave Tindall