Weather forecast for Thursday: It's a cloudy but warm day with temperatures starting at around 70 degrees and peaking at 80 by early afternoon. Winds are steady to begin with but it could start to gust a little in the afternoon.
Postman can deliver
Ian Poulter would have been a frustrated figure having to watch the US Masters on TV but there's a decent chance he shakes it off with a fast start here.
Poulter has made the top 15 in four of the last five editions of this event and twice shot rounds of 7-under 64 in that run.
One of those came on day one in 2020, a lap that gave him the first-round lead.
The Englishman was also fifth after day one in 2017 after a 66 and has started with a score in the 60s in seven of his last nine visits.
As for evidence of recent good starts, he was fifth after 18 holes at Bay Hill last month and fourth on Thursday's closing leaderboard at January's Abu Dhabi Championship.
The 66/1 is a decent FRL price for Poulter to shine early again.
I'd have slightly preferred an early tee-time but at least he's in the very first group of the second wave, heading out at 11:50am.
Look to Luke
Luke Donald may be way down the world rankings these days (500th to be exact) but he could just be worth a look in this market.
For starters, the Englishman has an incredible record at Harbour Town having racked up seven top threes.
True, the last of those was in 2017 but there are sufficenient hints of recent form to suggest he could feature on the early leaderboard again.
On other coastal tracks this season, Donald opened with a 66 at the RSM Classic and a 68 at the Sony Open, going on to finish tied 27th in the latter.
And just two starts ago, a first-round 68 at the Valspar Championship helped secure him tied 16th, his first top 20 in 16 starts. He followed that by playing all four rounds of the Texas Open.
Donald, who tees off at 8:16am, was the first-round leader here in 2016 and second after 18 holes in 2017.
I'm happy to take the 100/1 that he can spring out of the traps again.
G-Mac can go on the attack
I seem to be reforming the 2010 Ryder Cup team here but, what the heck, this is a course where the experienced plotters do well and there are reasons beyond nostalgia why Graeme McDowell is worth a look.
Looking at his credentials, the non-surprise element is that he's been both a winner here (2013) and a first-round leader (2015). He also fired a 66 on day two in 2020.
The surprise element is that he's twice popped up day one leaderboards in the last month.
G-Mac was fifth after round one at Bay Hill and third after the opening lap of the Corales Puntacana.
Tied 13th in Arnold Palmer's event, McDowell can hopefully make these form lines converge with a low first round from his 7:54am tee-time.
As with Donald, he's a three-figure price.