Find Me a 100 Winner: Look to Lahiri to lap up the lolly

The DP World Tour visits Germany this week for the Porsche European Open, which I've previewed here, and two of the last three winners of the event went off at a triple figure price.

The Porsche Nord Course at the Green Eagle Golf Resort has hosted the event four times previously and all four winners have been English but my sole selection for the column this week in Europe is an Italian.

Green up with Guido

Guido Migliozzi is a very straightforward selection. He was seventh here on his only previous appearance, back in 2019, and he was 10th last week at the Dutch Open.

He lost his way on Sunday in the Netherlands, and he could only finish 52nd in Belgium after a decent start a fortnight ago but he's definitely creeping into form.

Already a two-time winner on the DP World Tour, Guido found form at around this time last year when he finished runner-up at the British Masters and fourth in the US Open.

2 pts Guido Migliozzi @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Look to Lahiri to lap up the lolly

As highlighted in the preview, the Memorial Tournament has been a decent event for outsiders over the years, so I started by looking at what a few of them had been up to before they won at Muirfield Village. It turned out there was a bit of a pattern.

Bart Bryant (2005), Carl Pettersson (2006), David Lingmerth (2015), William McGirt (2016) and Jason Dufner (2017), who all went off at huge prices, had all shown up earlier in the year with some decent form before they won here.

All five had bits and pieces of form on the Florida Swing at events like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Honda Classic and the even the Players Championship and that put a couple of players firmly on the radar for this year's renewal - Gary Woodland and Anirban Lahiri.

A week after finishing fifth at the Honda Classic, Woodland really should have won the Arnold Palmer Invitational but a double-bogey at the 71st hole did for his chances (finished fifth) and he hasn't really recovered since.

Woodland has three top-six finishes around Muirfield Village and he was leading with a round to go in this event in 2016, so he came very close to inclusion. But at a bigger price, I'm happy to put up Lahiri instead, as his case appears slightly stronger.

As highlighted in the preview, form at Firestone is worth noting and Lahiri finished sixth there when not playing well in 2018 (his best finish that year).

Lahiri has already contended twice this year on the PGA Tour, running Cameron Smith mighty close at the Players Championship in March before finishing sixth in the Wells Fargo Championship in his penultimate start.

He missed the cut in the US PGA Championship from the wrong side of the draw last time out but given his course form, Lahiri looks a great bet at 170.0169/1 to bounce back at a venue that clearly suits.

In addition to his superior Firestone form, the 34-year-old Indian has far better scrambling stats than Woodland (often key here) and in four previous visits, he's shown up nicely twice.

Lahiri finished runner-up here in 2017 and he led the field after round one on his latest visit in 2019.

2 pt Anirban Lahiri @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Par 4 Performance points to two huge outsiders

Ordinarily, Par 4 Scoring or Par 4 Performance is only a key indicator on a par 70 track, with only two par fives encountered, but Par 4 Scoring has been unusually important in this event given there are four par fives, and that Muirfield Village is a par 72.

Last year's winner, Patrick Cantlay, ranked first and 11 of the last 16 Memorial winners have ranked either first or second for Par 4 Scoring so it's a factor that's well worth considering.

In addition to finishing second in Mexico, Kitayama was also third at the aforementioned Honda Classic in February and I'm very surprised he's priced up so big on his Muirfield debut.

1pt Kurt Kitayama @ 580.0579/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Justin Thomas has played the par fours in a whopping 17-under-par over the last three months, averaging 3.94. Only one other player has managed to get to double-digits below-par on the PGA Tour and that's Nate Lashley, who's played them in -11, averaging 3.96.

It's not hard to pick holes in Lashley's credentials. He missed the cut here in his only previous visit in the 2020 Workday Open and he failed to make the weekend at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week too, but he was 11th in Mexico at the start of May and he was an encouraging 17th at the Byron Nelson birdie-fest in his penultimate start after putting himself behind the eight ball with a pedestrian 72 in round one.

1 pt Nate Lashley @ 650.0649/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter