This one-off return to a column I wrote for over a decade comes with trepidation. When I handed over to Steve Rawlings, finding outsider winners was becoming harder than ever. Especially on the PGA Tour. That certainly applies to the Farmers Insurance Open - an event where the cream invariably rises to the top. Nevertheless, I can approach what was once a favourite event with a reasonable degree of confidence!
Torrey Pines offers clear form signals
You know exactly what to look for at Torrey Pines. A stellar long game, fit for three rounds at the beast known as the South Course. A great short game, to cope with the small greens. And ideally, some previous course form. Yes, finding the winner will be extremely tough, given the strength at the top of the market. But place returns, and perhaps a trading profit, are definitely within range. Here's three selections.
Solid start in States for Bezuidenhout
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 9.28/1
I'll start with a player whom I believe has a big future and could be set to really break through in 2022. Top South African players usually make it to the highest level and Christiaan Bezuidenhout looks precisely that. As a former runner-up of the Dubai Desert Classic, he had a big incentive to play there this week but instead makes his tournament debut, re-affirming his commitment to the PGA Tour this year.
He's done fairly well over here so far, making 17 cuts out of 21. I think we'll see him at his best on tough courses and his best result came on one - Bay Hill, where he was seventh in last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational. But the most notable result for me was 31st in last year's US Open at this course, in what was obviously a stronger field.
Torrey Pines generally takes some learning so hopefully he'll improve this time. It really should suit. Scrambling is really important here. Last year's top-six finishers included four of the top-eight in that discipline. He ranks 11th among this field for scrambling over the past year and also 11th for putting average - Steve notes the importance of that in his comprehensive preview.
Bradley shortlisted after eyecatching effort
Back Keegan Bradley 1u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1
Back Keegan Bradley for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 8.415/2
This has always been a 'horses for courses' event. Multiple winners are common and likewise multiple contenders. That must bring Keegan Bradley onto any shortlist - he's finished top-25 here six times, including a couple of top-fives.
Moreover, Bradley's annual debut was most pleasing. In finishing 12th at the Sony Open, he ranked first for strokes gained: tee to green, hit over 76% of greens in regulation and closed 65/66/65. He even ranked eighth for putting - usually a weakness.
Bomber Bramlett worth following at present
Back Joseph Bramlett 1u @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Back Joseph Bramlett for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 12.5
Finally a longer-odds punt on a California player. Bramlett has looked progressive for a couple of years, stepping up from the Korn Ferry Tour with some decent results on the PGA Tour, then returning to win the season-ending Korn Ferry Tour Championship.
He's started this year well, finishing top-20 at the Sony and contending to halfway last week, sitting third thru 36 holes at The American Express. In both events, he ranked 13th for strokes gained: approach and top-15 for strokes gained: tee to green. Very promising numbers for this test, as is the fact he's an out-and-out bomber, usually averaging more than 315 yards off the tee.
This will be his fourth attempt at the event, but we can forget the first from 11 years ago. He made the cut in the last two renewals, finishing 45th and 18th, closing well with 67 on the South Course last year.
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