FedEx St. Jude Championship: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 18/1 to 30/1

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Introduction to the FedEx St. Jude Championship

After 34 regular season events, the PGA Tour now begins its latest (20th no less) Playoff series.

The top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings have made it this far and they'll be whittled down to 50 on Sunday.

That bunch moves on to the BMW Championship before the top 30 contest the season-ending Tour Championship at East Lake.

Leg one of the Playoffs is once again held at Sega Megadrive favourite, TPC Southwind, a course we're very familiar with.

It's a tree-lined par 70 designed by Ron Prichard with smaller than average TifEagle Bermudagrass greens.

Water is in play on 10 holes of a course which measures 7,228 yards.

A par 70 with Bermuda throws up some obvious course correlations and Steve Rawlings in his preview notes that Hideki Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez, Justin Thomas and David Toms have won at both TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club (Sony Open).

Strokes Gained: Approach and Par 4 stats are worth a serious check, as is plain and simple course form.

Based in the south, typical weather conditions are hot and humid, and temperatures are set to soar past three figures on all four days.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Bet 1 - Viktor Hovland each-way @ 28/129.00

Viktor Hovland has had a mixed season and the contrasts are particularly striking when looking at his last six starts.

The Norwegian has missed three cuts in that spell but also won (Travelers) and finished third (Canadian Open). A 13th in the Scottish Open was another good knock.

He eventually finished 23rd in the FedEx Cup standings, sandwiched between Open winner Ryan Fox and the current defending champion here, Justin Rose.

Hovland hasn't been seen since missing the cut at Royal Birkdale where, despite the early exit, his Approach numbers were excellent and putting stats positive.

But he's a player with a record of having his competitive juices stirred by the Playoffs and let's not forget 2023 when he was crowned FedEx Cup champion after winning the final two events.

There's a good chance he can tick this one off too.

After finishing 20th in 2022, the current World No.14 shot middle rounds of 64-65 in 2023 to lie sixth after 54 holes before dropping to 13th at the finish.

A year later, a Friday 63 put Hovland in the mix and a pair of 66s on the weekend saw him finish runner-up.

Given all that, it was no surprise to see him say this in 2024: "It's my fifth time here and absolutely love the golf course. I think this is one of my favourite courses that we play all year.

"It's not super tricked up. Everything is right there in front of you. But yet you have certain angles, a lot of branches and trees that are just in the way to make everything more tricky, and I just think it's a genius golf course."

Back Hovland, who ranks 14th in the Par 4 Birdie or Better charts, at 28/129.00 with 10 places.

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Now read why Steve Rawlings is also backing Hovland this week

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Bet 2: Sam Burns each-way @ 18/119.00

If putting forward a candidate in the 'winner waiting to happen' category, Sam Burns would probably be top of the list.

Over the last couple of months the American has finished fourth at Memorial, runner-up in the US Open and third in the Open Championship where he was the 54-hole leader.

His other two results in that run were 12th (Travelers) and 20th (Canadian Open).

The curious thing is that he used to be a fairly prolific winner so, even though his performances in the majors show he's become a more rounded golfer, it's a headscratcher why the victories have dried up.

But surely for not much longer.

An event on Bermuda in the south is right in his wheelhouse, the man from Louisana showing just why with previous wins in Florida (twice), Texas (twice) and Mississippi.

As you'd expect, he has some strong past course form at TPC Southwind.

Fuelled by laps of 64 in rounds two and four in 2021, Burns lost out in a three-way playoff on just his second start at the course while a Friday 63 helped him to fifth in 2024. There's also a 20th and 28th on his record.

I think the intense heat forcecast this week plays into his hands too. A couple of years ago he said he was completely used to it living in Louisiana.

Stats-wise, Burns ranks 2nd for Par 4 Scoring Average which is ideal for a par 70 and 3rd in SG: Putting. He was 1st Tee To Green at Royal Birkdale but his inability to come fully to terms with the greens was probably the difference between finishing third and getting his hands on the claret jug.

By contrast, Burns putts these surfaces beautifully and ranked 1st for SG: Putting on them last year and 2nd in both 2024 and 2021. He's also gained strokes on approach in all five visits.

Refreshed by having some time off with his family (his second baby arrived just before the Open) since that near-miss at Birkdale, Burns can get the win here.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Bet 3: Tom Kim each-way @ 30/131.00

I was very close to putting up back-to-form Hideki Matsuyama but, at nearly twice the price in the 10 Place market, I'll go with Tom Kim.

The Korean is in great shape again and I really fancied him to come from a shot back and win last week's Wyndham Championship.

It didn't work out but fifth place after opening with a 65 and roaring up the leaderboard with a Saturday 63 confirmed that the youngster is coming back towards that incredibly high ceiling.

Perhaps he's already there. After third place in the US Open, Kim beat a world-class field to land the Scottish Open after closing with a 64.

He looks the part again and the numbers are striking: top 20 for SG: Approach in eight of his last 10 events (6th overall this season), top 20 for Driving Accuracy in four of his last five starts and a warming putter.

On the season-long stats he's 6th for Par 4 Scoring Average which again bodes really well for this test.

Kim played this event three times on the spin from 2022 to 2024 and finished 13th, 24th and 50th.

But drill down a little and he was third at halfway and sixth with a round to go in 2023 and 13th at the midpoint last year after a Friday 64.

After failing to make the Playoffs last year, the hunger will be there and 30s for 10 Places looks attractive given his current form.

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Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth preview of the FedEx St. Jude Championship

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*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

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