Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Tips: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 25/1 to 80/1

• 33/134.00 Shane Lowry can start his year off with a win

• 25/126.00 Jason Day is a two-time winner here and in strong form

• 80/181.00 Harris English relishes this tougher test

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Brief history of The American Express

It's been a bit of a doddle so far on the PGA Tour, the three tournaments won with scores of 35-under, 16-under and 25-under. The winners? Hideki Matsuyama, Nick Taylor and Sepp Straka. Well done if you backed any of those three.

Now the difficultly level ramps up with the annual visit to Torrey Pines and the glorious clifftop views of the North and South Courses.

As usual, it's one pre-weekend lap of the easier North and three rounds at the South, the place where Tiger Woods lifted this trophy seven times and won the 2008 US Open on one leg.

Last year's winning score of 13-under was pretty typical (the average over the last 10 years is -12.9), although the big surprise was that it was shot by Frenchman Matthieu Pavon.

He came home a shot clear of Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard to further confuse us into thinking this was a DP World Tour event given the lack of experience these two had Stateside.

Pavon was also the fifth non-American winner in the last eight editions and the strong record of overseas players has been a theme on the PGA Tour this season, with the three champions hailing from Japan, Canada and Austria.

That streak could continue if we look at the front end of the market. With most of the elite Americans swerving the event, Sweden's Ludvig Aberg is 9/110.00 favourite ahead of Matsuyama at 11/112.00 and South Korea's Sungjae Im at 18/119.00.

As for the two courses, last year the North (7,258 yards) averaged nearly three shots easier, no surprise that it's far shorter than the South (a brute at 7,765 yards).

Pavon paved the way for victory by finishing third for Strokes Gained: Approach and five of those to finish in the eight payout places were in the top 14 for that category.

That looks the best Strokes Gained stat to lean on, although note that Pavon was fifth for SG: Putting and third-placed Nate Lashley sixth for SGP. That said, Stephan Jaeger (T3rd) was 62nd in that category and Tony Finau (T6th) 72nd.

Finally, a reminder that the tournament runs from Wednesday to Saturday this week.

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Shane Lowry @ 33/134.00

Let's rewind to the 2019 season. With the prospect of an Open on Irish soil at Royal Portrush to look forward to, an excited Shane Lowry started off his year with victory at the Abu Dhabi Championship.

Six months later he would be lifting the Claret Jug in front of adoring fans.

Six years on, with the Open back at Portrush this summer, let's hope a repeat can play out.

This is again Lowry's first start of the year, although he did at least get some buzz when hitting the first shot of the new TGL, the indoor venture created by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Lowry's Bay GC team won their opener 9-2.

Lowry, who started off his 2020 campaign with second place at the Hong Kong Open, ended 2024 in fine form.

Each of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour ended in finishes of 13th or better and he closed out with third place in November's DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

The Irishman ranked third for SG: Approach there and sixth for Approach a week earlier in Abu Dhabi so if he can bring that iron play to the West Coast of America we could be in business.

Lowry has played this event five times and in his first two took seventh and 13th, finishing with a 68 at the tough South Course on both occasions.

After a gap he returned last year and enjoyed himself again with another top 25.

Summing up his 2024, after his third place at the DP World Championship, Lowry said: "Pretty happy with myself. I think when I reflect on the season, I'm going to be pretty happy with that, too.

"I feel like I would like to have won, and feel like I could have with the golf I've played but I showed this year that I still have a lot of good golf in me."

With wind and rain forecast for Saturday's closing round and mild temperatures all week, the planets could be aligned for Lowry to kick off a big year (he's desperate to play in the Ryder Cup again) with victory here. Take the 33s.

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Jason Day @ 25/126.00

Just in front of Lowry in the betting, there are several I like. Will Zalatoris, a 22/123.00 shot, has started the season well with 26th at The Sentry followed by 12th at The American Express.

I put him up at 55.054/1 on the Betfair Exchange in my ante-post Masters preview and those good early signs have already seen him chopped to 36.035/1. The Sportsbook have him at 33/134.00 for Augusta glory.

Another big show here, where he's finished second, seventh and 12th, and they will be trimmed again.

Tony Finau and US Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley, also both on offer at 22/123.00, have plenty of Torrey Pines form but if we're looking for the ultimate tournament specialist in the field it has to be Jason Day.

The Aussie won this event in 2015 and 2018, was runner-up in 2014 while two of his other four top 10s have come in the last three years: third in 2022 and seventh in 2023.

Day also has five top 10s in his last eight starts in California and the latest came just last week via a top-three finish in The American Express. The 37-year-old ranked third for SG: Tee To Green and seventh for Approach there so his game is clearly in good nick.

"Hit it very nice. A lot of the stuff that I was working on has definitely carried over, which is good, definitely, from Sentry. Short game felt pretty good. Overall very pleased," was his assessment.

Two big keys for Day are being healthy (tick) and family (tick). The little Days now travel on Tour with him and are home-schooled by Mum.

"We're very fortunate to be able to travel in a bus together," he said last week. "It can get lonely out here, and that's why I think if they were at home I probably wouldn't play too long, you know, just because I wouldn't be able to see my kids grow up, and then I just don't like being on the road by myself. So I'm very fortunate to be able to have them on the road with me."

Day is in a good place and the 25s is worth a punt.

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Harris English @ 80/181.00

For a final pick, I looked at Aaron Rai and Beau Hossler at 50s. The latter has been in good form for a while and sounds like someone who should be winning an event in California.

Way down at 150s, Luke List (the 2022 winner) and Sam Ryder both have proven course form.

But I'll close with a punt on Harris English at 80/181.00.

The four-time PGA Tour winner looked in good shape in the Fall Series, piecing together a three-tournament run of sixth at the Black Desert Championship, ninth in the Shriners and 14th at the World Wide Technology Championship.

He's played twice so far in 2025 and should have shaken some rust off after MC (69-72) at the Sony and 43rd at The American Express (70-68-69-69).

English ranked first for SG: Off The Tee in the latter and was positive in all the Strokes Gained categories. A repeat of that strong driving will benefit him greatly here.

The other trail that leads us towards English is course form. He's finished runner-up and eighth in this event and was third when the South Course staged the 2021 US Open.

"I love this golf. It's my mentality, and I think it really suits my game just plodding along, not having to shoot super aggressive and shoot low scores," he said that week.

In other words, he's far more suited to an event like this, won with something around 12-under, than he is with the birdie-fests we saw at The Sentry and American Express.

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