- Frenchman Victor Perez is well-suited for the course
- Two-time 2022 winner Ewen Ferguson is a big price
- Outsider Oliver Wilson has sneaky course form
Main Bet: Victor Perez 1pt each-way @ 40/1
Fresh from an enforced break (due to the quiet disappearance of the Cyprus Open), the DP World Tour is back for the penultimate event of the 2022 season.
It is also back in Sun City for the first time in three years, at the Gary Player Country Club for the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
Originally known as the Million Dollar Challenge in the 1980s it was something of a forerunner to LIV Golf in that it was politically sensitive (taking place in Apartheid South Africa) but the golfers didn't much care because it had the biggest prize fund in the sport.
As of 2013, it became part of the DP World Tour schedule and in 2017 it was woven into the Rolex Series. It has subsequently lost that status but it remains a limited field event with a hefty enough prize pot.
The coffers are not quite big enough to tempt many stars, most of whom are waiting to close their campaign with next week's DP World Tour Championship.
That means the week presents an opportunity for many because the trophy has always been lifted by high-quality champions. In one sense that makes sense - the limited field kind of made it inevitable, especially when the money involved was special rather than, as now, typical - but the course also rewards superb ball-striking.
Branden Grace and Tommy Fleetwood are the only two past champions in the field which adds to the feeling of opportunity.
They are also the only pair in the field who might be viewed as having proved their high quality so if they don't win and the trend for that type of winner is maintained this week then it will be in highlighting a player who is on the rise toward that level.
First pick this week is a Frenchman who, in golf's game of snakes and ladders, spent time climbing long ladders, was swallowed by a snake, has been back on the shorter ladders, and might now have it in him to start ascending bigger ones.
And when the man in question, Victor Perez, is in full flow has a very fine long game which would make a very fine fit with this test.
His ability to get the ball from tee to green in neat style was revealed when he broke through in 2019 and was maintained in 2020, when he ranked top 30 for Greens in Regulation.
He lost form in 2021 but actually improved his GIR rankings to third and he is 15th this season.
That's good news because, with the exception of Branden Grace, since stats have been available in this tournament winners have excelled at GIR (Perez is also a handy ninth in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, the rather more sophisticated measure of long game).
His breakthrough came with victory in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and he was soon challenging on tough tracks against quality fields in the HSBC Champions, Turkish Airlines Open, Abu Dhabi Championship, Dubai Desert Classic, Saudi International, BMW PGA Championship, DP World Tour Championship, THE PLAYERS Championship and he made the final four in the 2021 WGC Match Play.
It was soon after that high that he lost form but he bounced back with victory in May's Dutch Open and has twice been third this year, including in the Italian Open in September.
Next Best: Ewen Ferguson 1pt each-way @ 66/1
We've had some success backing Scotsman Ewen Ferguson this season, most notably when he very nearly triumphed in the Made in Himmerland tournament.
That result came a few weeks after he landed the ISPS Handa World Invitational in Northern Ireland, a second win of the year following his breakthrough triumph at the Qatar Masters - and that came shortly after he had led the Kenya Open by four shots with 18 holes to play.
That's a lot of excellent experience at the top end of the leaderboard and last time out he thrashed a third round 65 to propel himself to tied ninth in the Mallorca Open.
He's a course debutant but his fine showing in Kenya suggests altitude won't faze him and he sits seventh in the seasonal GIR stats and 24th for SG Tee to Green.
His price is very tempting this week.
Final Bet: Oliver Wilson 0.5pt each-way @ 150/1
A final punt at a big price on Englishman Oliver Wilson.
He's a winner this year, just withstanding the challenge of Ferguson at the Made in Himmerland, and has made six of his last eight cuts in all.
He's played the tournament just the once and it was a little more promising than it appears on first glance.
He finished 30th after enduring a horrible final day in which he carded an 82.
Before then he had scored 69-72-67 to sit three shots off the lead in fourth.
There are also a couple of tenuous links that clinch the deal for this big priced outsider.
First up, 11 of the last 12 winners of this title have also landed a top three on The Old Course in St Andrews (Wilson is a past winner of the Dunhill Links).
And secondly, every single winner here was a Ryder or Presidents Cup performer. As mentioned earlier, this week's field might test such quality-based trends, but, if not, remember that Wilson did represent Europe in 2008.
* Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.