LIV Golf Invitational Tucson Tips: Act of Grace in the desert

Matt Cooper
15 March 2023
4:00 min read

South Africa's Branden Grace has a fine record in the desert.

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LIV Golf returns to the U.S. this week. Cameron Smith heads the betting for the LIV Golf Invitational Tucson but Matt Cooper looks elsewhere for his two selections with the Betfair Sportsbook paying six places...

LIV Golf's second tournament of the 2023 schedule
South Africa's Branden Grace should enjoy the desert test
And his compatriot Dean Burmester might too

One way or another the sport of golf can't stop talking balls.

After 12 months mired in a tawdry squabble about gobsmacking buckets of money, Phil Mickelson's potty mouth and the future of the game, a period that most of the time felt like elite golfers were all spouting metaphorical balls, yesterday's announcement by the R&A and USGA (to limit bit-hitting) had all of us quite literally talking balls.

Intriguingly, the two subjects have potential for getting mixed up with one another because, if the PGA and DP World Tours comply with the governing bodies and insist that competitors use a modified ball, there's every chance LIV will pounce, welcoming big-hitters and trumpeting freedom of choice.

Should it happen it won't be the first time the new circuit's performers will have happily accepted any old balls.

This week the renegade field heads to the wild west, or at least a slick corporate venue in the heart of old cowboy country - The Gallery Golf Club in Tucson, Arizona.

Those with a longish memory will recall the course hosted the WGC World Match Play in 2007 and 2008, events won by Henrik Stenson and Tiger Woods.

At first glance, it's a biggish test with a par of 71 and a total yardage of 7,469.

More tellingly, perhaps, two of the three par-5s are over 590 yards while four of the par-4s are set between 496 and 512 yards.

But note that the layout sits at around 900 metres above sea level and is also in the desert - by afternoon the thin air should also be warm so the course will play a little below the raw numbers (it also appears to be being played to a different configuration this week).

Stenson not only starred at this course in 2007, he was also third on defence 12 months later and around that time he was also sensational in the desert of the Middle East.

In fact, add his U.S. and Middle East desert starts together in 2006 through 2008 and his record reads: 11 starts, 11 top eight finishes, three wins.

In all, the Swede has twice finished second at Abu Dhabi, been a winner at Emirates and Doha, and a double winner at Jumeirah. Yes, at his best he was very, very good at desert golf.

A winner already on the LIV circuit, he'll surely be keen this week and he came close to selection but instead I've gone for two other golfers who know how to plot their way around the desert.

Main Bet: Branden Grace 1pt each-way @ 22/1

Patrick Reed came close to a pick off the back of nice form in Dubai but I'm a little put off by his poor returns in the American desert.

In contrast, South Africa's Branden Grace has played well in such conditions in both locations.

He's a four-time top 10 finisher on the Earth Course at Jumeirah (including a best of third), he's twice been fifth at Abu Dhabi and he's a two-time winner at Doha.

Over in Arizona he's logged a second and ninth at TC Scottsdale.

Our headline tip when he won the second LIV event last summer, he carded three sub-69 scores when third last time out at El Camaleon and can maintain that momentum this week.

Back Branden Grace 1pt each-way @

22/1

Next Best: Dean Burmester 1pt each-way @ 40/1

Brooks Koepka is a two-time winner in Arizona and also a winner in the Middle East on this circuit last Fall, but I'm not sure about the state of his game. Thomas Pieters was another I considered with solid desert returns.

Instead it's a second South African in the shape of Dean Burmester who gets the vote.

He's another who has taken a shine to the Earth Course with a pair of fourths and a sixth.

He's also landed seventh at Abu Dhabi and third at the Emirates.

It's also a bonus with both this week's picks that, as South Africans who have played so much golf on the high veldt around Johannesburg, they will not be fazed by any altitude equations.

He made a solid LIV debut in Mexico with 20th at El Camaleon and this test should suit him a lot more.

He doesn't win as often as he might but he might note that the DP World Tour is playing at St Francis Links this week - scene of his last victory worldwide - and the triumph of Charles Howell III at Mayakoba was a reminder not to over-fret win ratios.

Back Dean Burmester 1pt each-way @

40/1

* Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.

LIV picks in 2022/23
Staked: 32 pts
Returned: 118.4 pts
P/L: +86.4 pts

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