- Hurly Long fits the bill of unlikely Earth contenders
- Recent winner Jordan Smith loves the Middle East
- India's Shubhankar Sharma has hidden course form
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Main Bet: Hurly Long 1pt each-way @ 100/1
The bad news? This column's brief is distinct: the quest is to find juicy each-way options and nine of the 13 winners of the DP World Tour Championship started the week priced 17.016/1 or shorter.
The good news? There have been four winners priced upwards of 41.040/1 while the places are often filled by long shots.
In the last five years Alexander Bjork, Laurie Canter, Mike Lorenzo Vera, Dean Burmester (twice), Adrian Otaegui and Dylan Frittelli have all placed when three figures.
The even better news is that last year's column landed a place in the form of Nicolai Hojgaard at 71.070/1 and there is no reason to change from the method behind that pick - the fact that the Portugal Masters at Dom Pedro has proved to be a good pointer for this week.
We noted that the first winner at Earth was Lee Westwood, who had also won in Portugal. He was succeeded by Robert Karlsson (who had been second in Portugal a few weeks earlier) and the third winner, Alvaro Quiros, was a past champion at Dom Pedro.
In 2015 Andy Sullivan won in Portugal and was second in Dubai, three years later Portugal winner Tom Lewis was tied seventh and then sixth the year after that, while in 2020 Laurie Canter was second in Portugal ahead of sharing the lead after 54 holes on the Earth Course and then finishing fifth.
In addition to this Portugal pointer, there is the mode of attack by these outsiders.
A couple of weeks ago the PGA Tour made its regular visit to El Camaleon, a Greg Norman design that has tended to be won by accurate, rather than big, hitters from the tee box.
Norman's Earth Course at Jumeirah is something of a contrast to that in being over 7,700 yards in length.
Matt Fitzpatrick's two wins prove that big hitting is not a necessity but the general quality of his work from the tee box is revealed in consistently high rankings for Strokes Gained Off the Tee - just like Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm who are also recent double winners of this event (and who do pound it).
Two-time place finisher Burmester, Canter and Hojgaard also feature high in the category and they are also high up in the Driving Distance standings.
We'll come to this year's Portugal Masters winner shortly, but my first pick is the German Hurly Long.
A win this week would be extraordinary, but a place is not beyond him in the manner of Burmester.
He spent all week in the top 10 at Dom Pedro, carding 65-67-66-67 for a share of fifth and it came after he spent all week in the top 12 before finishing ninth in the Mallorca Open, his sixth and seventh top 10s of the season.
His Middle East record this year? He closed with 64s both weeks at Al Hamra for 18th and third.
And then there is the manner of his best work: he ranks 33rd for Distance and 36th for SG Off the Tee.
Next Best: Jordan Smith 1.5pt each-way @ 25/1
There's absolutely no doubt that Englishman Jordan Smith is a tight price this week but he has enjoyed a very consistent year which has him behind only McIlroy in Stroke Average and Thomas Pieters for Strokes Gained Total.
Moreover, he leads the seaonal SG Off the Tee standings and is 24th for Distance.
It's a compelling combination and he was also the winner of Portugal Masters when a new putter and grip allowed him to take full advantage of his fine 2022 tee-to-green game.
This will be his fifth visit to the tournament and back in 2018 he shared the first round lead and stayed in the top three right through till Saturday evening before dropping back into a share of 18th.
He also has a very strong record in the Middle East.
On the Challenge Tour he claimed wins in first Egypt and then at Al Hamra in the UAE while on the main tour he added ninth at Emirates, 11th at Abu Dhabi, 12th at Yas Links, 12th and sixth at Al Mouj, and sixth at Doha.
Final Bet: Shubhankar Sharma 0.5pt each-way @ 200/1
Final pick is India's Shubhankar Sharma who looks to have a lively chance at a huge price.
Last week in South Africa he played very well in carding a trio of 69s to close for third place (and ranking 10th for SG Off the Tee).
In addition, he already owns a top two in the UAE this season, courtesy of a good start in the New Year at Yas Links in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
He's also shone before in a high quality limited field, when the 36 and 54 hole leader of the WGC Mexico Championship back in 2018.
And the clincher is his only previous start in this event.
At first glance it looks like a rather flat 41st.
There's no doubt that his final round of 80 was poor, but the 67-66 which preceded it is rather promising.
A golfer as good as Thomas Pieters also has a best of 66 and 67 at Earth but in 28 laps and Collin Morikawa has only one sub-68 score in eight circuits.
Quite clearly, the difference is that their poor rounds are much better than Sharma's but it's intriguing firepower for a golfer in-form and a big price.
* Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.