Three strong suggestions and two picks advised
As highlighted in the preview, the Byron Nelson Championship is a low-scoring event that has produced more than its fair share of longshot winners so that's where I've concentrated my efforts.
I was forced, however, to have a rethink after Jordan Spieth's withdrawal saw prices contract. Three players that I backed on Monday shortened up dramatically, having been tipped up elsewhere too.
Michael Kim, who was available to back as high as 150.0149/1 yesterday, really caught the eye at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Korean-born, Texas-based American has shown he can go super-low.
Kim won the John Deere Classic by a remarkable eight strokes in 27-under-par back in 2018.
He lost his game completely shortly after that, but he's been going in the right direction this year with an 11th at the AT&T Pebble Beach and a top-five at the Puerto Rico Open the highlights prior to Sunday's seventh behind Wyndham Clark at Quail Hollow.
I backed Hideki Matsuyama and one of the reasons was his fine record at TPC Scottsdale. Form at the Phoenix Open's host course has popped up here over the last two years and that led me to someone else who caught the eye last week - Nate Lashley.
Lashley, who finished third at the Phoenix Open three years ago was tied for the lead at halfway at the Wells Fargo last week, so I thought he was worth chancing at 230.0229/1 but he's now 100 points shorter.
I also backed last week's 850.0849/1 selection, Jimmy Walker, on Monday but he's now trading at 60 points lower than the 210.0209/1 I took so I binned all three and started again.
I still like their chances and they may well drift out again before the off but under the circumstances I've had a complete change of tack and backed two others.
At big prices, I've always preferred to chance inconsistent sorts, who know how to win when they get a chance, over players who regularly contend without getting their noses in front. I've dug out two perfect examples this week. One in Texas, and one In Belgium.
Chance Champ to contend again
Cameron Champ has played 110 times on the PGA Tour, and he's won three times, whereas the current favourite at the Soudal Open, Alexander Bjork, has won just once in 146 starts on the DP World Tour.
Bjork does have current form figures reading 16-14-4, compared to Champ's MC-8-MC but I'd rather risk a few pounds on a three-time winner at odds in excess of 300.0299/1 than take the 18/1 about Bjork winning his second title, five years after his first. Especially when there are reasons to think this venue might suit Champ.
He's a mercurial character that misses more cuts than he makes but he's finished inside the top-10 on 10% of his starts on the PGA Tour so when he does turn up he tends to contend.
There was a lot to like about his eighth place finish in Mexico two starts ago, where he ranked inside the top-ten for Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Strokes Gained of the Tee and Tee-2-Green, as well as 11th for SG - Approach.
With rounds of 70-75, he narrowly missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, but he's made the cut here in both his previous appearances and his first victory on the PGA Tour, at the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2018, might be a decent pointer.
SFC winners regularly reach 20-under-par or better and the 2019 SFC winner, Sebastian Munoz, finished third at last year's Byron Nelson Championship, after he'd kicked of the event with a 12-under-par 60.
Back 1.5 pt Cameron Champ @ 310.0309/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 10u @ 2.01/1
Gavins can go in again at a monster price
Matt Cooper makes a very logical case for Daniel Gavins at the Soudal Open, saying that the course should really suit him.
He has a fine record at tree-lined venues, and he has a very similar profile to Champ in that he contends rarely but when he does, he wins. In fact, in 104 starts on the DP World Tour, he has just two top-five finishes, bub both were wins.
Gavins won the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February and the ISPS World Invitational around Galgorm Castle in 2001. On both occasions, he went off at huge odds because his current form was nothing to write home about.
He made the cut in Italy last week, where he finished tied for 57th, but he was 14th at the Korea Championship two weeks ago. One last positive was his 21st place finish at the Austrian Open in April '21.
As highlighted in the preview, form at the Diamond Course in Austria has crossed over to Rinkven nicely and Gavins sat fifth, trailing by three, with a round to go there two years ago.
Back 1.5 u Daniel Gavins @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
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