-
Scot Ewen Ferguson has form and good course vibes
-
Dani Van Tonder likes playing in the trees
-
Daniel Gavins is a big price for a two-time winner
The DP World Tour's return to Europe heads north for a second Soudal Open and a fourth visit to the composite course at Rinkven International.
It's something of a novel set-up, a par 71 at 6,970 yards that includes just three par-3s and two par-5s.
There's a lot of par-4s, in other words, and six of them are shorter than 400 yards while another two are just 406 and 407 yards.
If that suggests that it can be overpowered from the tee box maybe think again.
It is tree-lined, quite tightly in some places, and calls for plenty of conservative calls with most hitting to similar areas.
Add in small-ish greens and approach play comes to the fore.
Last year's winner Sam Horsfield was good enough in that area of the game to lead the Strokes Gained Approach rankings for the 2021 season. The two fellows who chased him home, Ryan Fox and Yannick Paul, ranked fourth and 12th last year.
The first winner at Rinkven at this level was Adrian Otaegui who regularly features high in the same category, as did the runner-up that year Benjamin Hebert.
And while 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi has never really shone in that part of the game throughout a season, his best finishes tally with good approaches and he was in good form with his irons ahead of that win.
The good news for the event is that Thomas Detry returns from the PGA Tour to add local lustre.
The bad news is that Thomas Pieters, like the defending champion Horsfield, is now a LIV performer.
First bet was very nearly the American John Catlin who is a winner at two tree-lined tracks (Valderrama and Galgorm Castle) and has also won at Diamond Country Club which Steve Rawlings has highlighted as a possible pointer.
His best golf also features good approach but I'm just not sure he's producing it at the moment.
Instead, I'll give Ewen Ferguson a pass for missing the cut last week.
It was the Scotsman's first start since March and he signed off before the break with a pair of top four finishes in South Africa when his approach work was excellent.
Like Catlin he's a past winner at Galgorm Castle and his first win at this level was very nearly at Muthaiga, another track within the trees.
The 26-year-old also played well among the trees at Adamstal, Dar es Salam and Galgorm Castle again on the second tier.
The clincher is that in 2019, when still a Challenge Tour performer, he got a rare start at the top level at Rinkven and finished third when he talked about hitting a lot of fairways, enjoying the test and proving it by going bogey-free in his third/fourth place play off (admittedly only nine holes).
He's a two-time winner last year, with two top fours in his last three starts and a top three finish on the course.
I'm a bit surprised we can get this price for him.

South Africa's Dani Van Tonder is another man who likes hitting down avenues of trees.
He's got wins at Glendower and Karen, top fives at Pretoria and Houghton, a top 10 at Royal Johannesburg and he contended at Eichenried in Munich.
It's something of a surprise that he hasn't played here yet, not so much because he's a guaranteed great fit (although he might easily be a nice one), more because he plays so often.
Between the middle of August and end of October last year, for example, he played every week.
He might also be bubbling at the moment: he was second in his home nation at the start of last month and briefly contended in the two weeks that followed.
He was then fifth last week in the Italian Open, playing alongside the winner Adrian Meronk in the final round.
He also ranked ninth for SG Approach this season, the final piece in the puzzle.
Last pick Daniel Gavins seriously reminds me of one of my favourite golfers.
The man in question is the German Tobias Dier who played 132 times on the European Tour and made the top 25 just four times.
But two of them were wins.
"Ultimately, when I was good, I was very good," he once told me. "And when I was bad, I was very bad. There was nothing in between ...
"When I had a chance to win I took it so that feels really good. But my consistency, or my 'normal' performance? It was never good enough."
Gavins is not quite so hit or miss.
He also has two wins and a similar number of starts (104) but he has another three top 10s in addition to those triumphs.
But he does share Dier's ability to take his opportunities to win (even if he did so in slightly bizarre fashion when winning the Ras al Khaimah Championship earlier this year when he played the 18th hole badly but earned the right to do so).
He's also played tree-lined venues well.
In fact, his first win at this level came at Galgorm Castle.
Also his first top five at pro level was at Hawkstone Park on the EuroPro Tour (the first eight holes of which are very tight for pros), and he's been T11th at Valderrama and sixth at Muthaiga.
He also made the last 16 at Rinkven in 2019.
* Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.