Find Me a 100 Winner: Trust Troy to contend again

Steven Rawlings
31 January 2023
4 min read

Troy Merritt - fancied to contend again at Pebble Beach

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Steve Rawlings returns to preview the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Ras al Khaimah Championship as he seeks out a big-price winner

The Punter picks three outsider to trade
Read my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview here
Read my the Ras al Khaimah Championship preview here

Sebastian Soderberg was very disappointing in Dubai last week, missing the cut by a wide margin, and Byeong Hun An finished tied for 62nd at the Farmers Insurance Open but he very nearly hit the first lay-back target.

Backed before the off at 260.0259/1, the Korean was bang in contention halfway through round three and he was matched at a low of 14.5 before back-to-back double-bogeys at 11 and 12.

He picked up a couple of shots after that but he was out of the reckoning and he was never at the races on Saturday - posting an 11-over-par 83 in round four!

As highlighted in the preview, we've seen some huge outsiders win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so it was a case of limiting picks there rather than finding them.

I managed to get a small amount matched on one of Dave Tindall's picks - Nick Taylor - at 100.099/1 but he's now a 90.089/1 chance so can't be included and after much deliberation, I'm leaving out Kevin Kisner, on account of him not playing in so long.

Kisner has been at Pebble this week so he may well be fit and firing but that still leaves me with two, Troy Merritt, and another of Dave's fancies, Kevin Streelman.

Trust Troy to contend again

As highlighted in the preview, event form is key in this event with so many winners having already shown plenty in the event previously.

It's a quirky event with a tiresome format. With three rounds over three different venues, bumpy unpredictable greens and amateurs in tow, it takes a certain type of player to take to the tournament and it's no surprise to see debutants struggle and the same names contend year after year.

Somewhat typically, Troy Merritt took his time to get to grips with the event and he missed his first six cuts here but he kept returning and it's now paying dividends.

In his last four attempts he's finished eighth, 25th, 16th and fourth last year so it's fair to say the penny's dropped.

Having finished 65th in the Sony and missed the cut in The American Express, he's started the year quietly, but he was third in Mexico as recently as November.

Back 2u Troy Merritt 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Streelman a steel at Pebble

Dave has made a great case for Kevin Streelman in his each-way column and I'm quite surprised to see him as big as 190.0189/1 on the exchange.

He hasn't been in great form since finishing second in the Barbasol Championship in the summer but that doesn't concern me at all.

Streelman has performed well out of the blue on plenty of occasions and when he was second here in 2020 he had current form figures reading MC-MC-MC-45-MC.

Back 2u Kevin Streelman @ 190.0189/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Take the tasty price about Tapio at Al Hamra

As highlighted in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview, the last three course winners all ended 2022 ranked inside the top-ten for Driving Distance on the DP World Tour and form at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, which hosts the Portugal Masters, has stood up well around Al Hamra, which would explain why Finland's Tapio Pulkkanen, who ranked 16th for DD, contended there last year.

Tapio Pulkkanen in India.jpg

Having finished only 42nd at Al Hamra on the Challenge Tour back in 2017, he finished seventh and 20th in consecutive weeks 12 months ago - trading at a low of 6.411/2 in this event when he sat third with a round to go.

Tapio's best results since have been a third in the Czech Masters - another event in which length is a huge asset - and a third in the aforementioned Portugal Masters.

He's my idea of the best outsider in the event but I was also tempted by Shaun Norris.

The South African was ninth in this event last year and he sat fourth with a round to go in Dubai last week before a 79 on Monday saw him tumble down the leaderboard.

I thought he was a very fair price at around 180.0179/1 but I'm going to stick with just Tapio.

Back 2u Tapio Pulkkanen @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended Bets

Back 2u Troy Merritt 170.0169/1 Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1Back 2u Kevin Streelman @ 190.0189/1 Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4Back 2u Tapio Pulkkanen @ 120.0119/1 Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

STEVE'S 2023 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 20 units Returned: 20 units P/L: 0 units

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