Golf Bets

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025 Tips: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 40/1 to 70/1

Canadian golfer Nick Taylor
Nick Taylor can win at Pebble again

After landing an 80/1 winner with Harris English last week, Dave Tindall has three bets for the annual visit to Pebble Beach...


Brief history of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 

After three weeks of nothing it was nice to hit the jackpot last week as Harris English won the Farmers Insurance Open at 80/181.00.

The betting gods never owe anyone anything but it did feel extra sweet after Luke List-gate at that same tournament three years earlier.

Let me explain. I'd written the words for my final pick List, also an 80/181.00 shot, in 2022 but got sidetracked before the preview saw the light of the day.

When I returned to it, he'd been cut to 66s. In my wisdom, I decided the price wasn't good enough, deleted all the text and substituted him out at the 11th hour.

I keep a level head when it comes to following my tips/nearly tips but watching him lift the trophy five days later was a tough one to take.

So what nice symmetry that English popped up to win at Torrey Pines at that 80/181.00 price mark

Pebble Beach is another favourite event and I've had some success there down the years - Matt Gogel at 100s way back in 2002 was a thrill - although not in recent times.

Gogel had finished runner-up at Pebble two years earlier and that highlights how course/tournament form has been a good predictor.

Phil Mickelson and Mark O'Meara have both won here five times with Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker and Davis Love among those to lift the trophy twice.

Tiger won the US Open at Pebble by a ludicrous 15 shots having won this event earlier that season.

The tournament was reduced to 54 holes last year and is often weather-affected but not this week according to the latest forecast which shows modest winds.

Pebble Beach is a par 72 measuring under 7,000 yards. This year it stages three of the four rounds, including both weekend laps.

The holes that run along the clifftops are spectacular and will be even more enjoyable to play if the winds stay calm as predicted.

Spyglass Hill gets one pre-weekend round and that's a short course too: a par 72 at 7,041 yards.

With amateurs clearing off after 36 holes, a field of just 80 (it's a Signature Event) and three rounds on the main course, this feels like a leaner and purer edition of Pebble Beach.

Note: that reduced field size means a trimming on the each-way terms to seven places (1/5 the odds).

Nick Taylor @ 66/167.00

I'm going to lean heavily on past course form and that means former winner Nick Taylor jumps out at 66/167.00.

Taylor won this event in 2020 and has added top 20s in 2022 and 2023. Before the win he was 10th in 2017 so it's a tournament he's always loved playing.

His win five years ago was achieved by tidy iron play (13th SG: Approach), a strong short game (13th Around The Green) and a hot blade (second SG: Putting).

That's a very typical set of numbers for a winner here.

Wyndham Clark ranked 20th (Approach), 14th (ATG) and 1st (SGP) when hoisting the silverware last year while 2023 champion Justin Rose was 14th, fourth and 14th in those three categories.

Tom Hoge in 2022? Fourth, 22nd, third. Daniel Berger in 2021? Sixth, 11th, 18th. You get the idea.

That was Taylor's second win on Tour and he now has five. Three have come since 2023 which compares very favourably to some of those at the very front end of the market.

The latest was sealed just a few weeks ago in the Sony Open (another coastal event played on a short course) and he followed that with 12th in The American Express.

So, in those pair of 2025 starts, how did he fare in the key categories mentioned above - Approach, Around The Green and Putting?

The answer is extremely well. In those two events, the Canadian ranked fourth and fifth for Approach, 17th and 11th Around The Green and 23rd and second for Putting.

In short, Taylor is a proven winner, a former champ and is displaying the skills needed for further success here. 

He even likes the pro-am element. "I feel like it's easier to relax. It's easy to get uptight in certain tournaments, especially if you're kind of either playing well or not great. But I enjoy it. I've always enjoyed kind of meeting new people and playing with them."

The 66/167.00 looks a good each-way bet in a reduced field.

The only 'negative' is that he's only just won but that's an odd line to take when we think about it. Surely he'll have more confidence for having done so.


Sam Burns @ 40/141.00

Sam Burns doesn't have the body of work here that others boast but 10th place last year on his second appearance after 39th on debut in 2021 is promising.

Burns has three tops 10s in his last four starts in California and winding back to last year he ended his season with form of 12-5-2-13.

He's made a bright start to 2025 too via an eighth place in The Sentry where he opened with a 72 before adding laps of 66-66-65.

The American followed that up with 29th at The American Express where one bad round did for him again (68-66-73-67).

In those two tournaments he ranked 13th and fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting as well as 16th and 24th Around The Green.

He found 87.5% of the very easy-to-hit greens at The Plantation Course and hit over 75% at The American Express.

Like Taylor, Burns is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour, all those coming since May 2021.

There's a perception that he does all his best work on Bermuda but he recorded 10th places both here and at Riviera last February and ranked ninth and 17th respectively for SG: Putting on those Poa annua surfaces.

Still in the first year of being a new dad and boosted by playing on the Presidents Cup team back in September, Burns can make an impact here at 40/141.00.


Tom Hoge @ 70/171.00

Jason Day at 33/134.00 and Taylor Pendrith at 45/146.00 were on the shortlist but both have lost strokes on the greens in each of their three tournaments so far and were particularly poor on the Poa annua at Torrey Pines.

Denny McCarthy was another to be considered but at that same price of 70/171.00 I'll go with the 2022 winner Tom Hoge.

After not doing much more than enjoying the views on early visits, he first made his mark at Pebble when 12th in 2021.

Hoge took victory the following year - his first and still only PGA Tour win - and was sixth last year in the 54-hole edition after shooting 66s in rounds two and three.

In three starts in California in 2024, Hoge finished sixth, eighth and seventh so he really does love the Golden State.

And we've seen him on plenty of leaderboards so far this season after he opened with 64s in both Hawaii events.

The 35-year-old eventually finished eighth at The Sentry and 45th at the Sony Open and he's since added a decent enough 29th in The American Express.

An elite iron player, Hoge ranked 4th, 16th and 15th on Approach in those three events. He also recorded positive Strokes Gained numbers in both Around The Green and Putting in that trio.

When he won at Pebble three years ago, Hoge said: "It's awesome. So many great champions here at Pebble Beach. We took a vacation here last summer. I brought my dad, brother and wife Kelly out to play. So Pebble Beach is a special spot for us as well.

"I felt like it was a golf course that really suits my game well. You don't necessarily have to push it with drivers that much, but lay back a little bit and it's definitely a second-shot golf course which I feel like is the strength of my game."

That sums it up nicely and Hoge is playing well enough to make another big run.


Now read The Punter's Pebble preview


Recommended bets

Dave's P/L

Staked: £120
Returned: £490
P/L: +£370

Previous:
2024 P/L: -£36.27
2022/2023 P/L: -£191.44
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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