Arnold Palmer Invitational Each-Way Tips: Casey can be king of the Hill

Main Bet: Paul Casey each-way @ 34.033/1

With two Austrians in the top seven, including winner Sepp Straka, last week's Honda Classic produced results more akin to a downhill skill race than a Florida Swing opener.

However, that doesn't mean we go off piste in this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament where course form seems to count for plenty.

Tiger won this eight times while Ernie Els, Matt Every and Loren Roberts are all dual winners.

Last year's winner, Bryson DeChambeau, had a second and fourth already under his Bay Hill belt while 2020 champion Tyrrell Hatton had finished fourth on his debut a few years earlier.

Francesco Molinari had posted three top 10s at Arnie's place before lifting the silverware in 2019 and so it goes on.

Hot putters (see Roberts) were once the players to look for here but strong tee-to-green merchants now appeal most after Bay Hill's various rounds of toughening up.

Last year, DeChambeau and runner-up Lee Westwood ranked 2nd and 1st for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. Third-placed Corey Conners was 6th.

And so it makes perfect sense to check the charts for those strongest in that department since the calendar flipped.

Straka's win reminded us that Europeans so often excel in Florida and that's backed up by the recent Bay Hill victories for Hatton (2020), Molinari (2019) and Rory McIlroy (2018).

So, my first pick is Paul Casey, already a contributor to the list of Euro success in the Sunshine State.

Casey's two wins came in the Valspar Championship (2018 and 2019) but he's also made the top 10 in two of his last three starts here. They were last year and 2016.

Dig deeper and he's been a leaderboard regular at Bay Hill, sitting in the top 10 at halfway in his last three appearances.

His game looks ideal to challenge heavily again.

After finishing 2021 racking up impressive SG: Tee-To-Green numbers, he's continued that in 2022. He ranked ninth in Dubai and 10th at Riviera for TTG.

His early travels this year have taken him to Singapore, Dubai, Saudi and California (Genesis Invitational) and he's made the top 25 in all four, three of those top 16s.

The putter hasn't been as strong but he said at Bay Hill last year: "I've always been a guy who loves really, really fast greens and these are the fastest greens I've putted on so far this year."

If he can hold his own at the business end that may be good enough as last year's 1-2, DeChambeau and Westwood, were only 21st and 37th respectively for SG: Putting

He looks a good bet at 33/1 to throw down a title challenge.

Next Best: Christiaan Bezuidenhout each-way @ 51.050/1

Christian Bezuidenhout has certainly enjoyed his two trips to Bay Hill and his third could be particularly memorable.

The South African opened with a 68 on debut in 2020 to sit fifth after the first lap and, with scoring ultra tough, he was fourth with a round to go after following it with scores of 72 and 73. A closing 79 dropped him to tied 18th but it was a more than acceptable result on just his second PGA Tour start.

Last year, he started out with a trio of 70s before a closing 73 secured seventh place and some each-way returns.

Looking at his stats from those two events, Bezuidenhout was 19th on Approach in 2020 while the top seven last year was due to his superb short game: 5th SG: Around The Green and 4th SG: Putting.

He had negative SG: Off-The-Tee numbers both times but that has been a strength in recent events which has to bode well.

The three-time European Tour winner was 6th for SG: OTT when finishing tied 14th at Pebble Beach while he was 8th in that category on the way to tied 25th at last week's Honda Classic.

Bezuidenhout finished the Honda with a bogey-free 66 - the joint-second best score on Sunday - and had the fifth best SG: Tee-To-Green numbers in round four.

The parts of the puzzle seem to be coming together nicely and I like his chances at 50/1.

Jumping briefly to the front of the market, Jon Rahm is making his Bay Hill debut and, while his results in Florida are decent, he's not been a regular visitor which may offer a hint that it's not his favourite part of the States. Six start are yet to yield a top five.

Rory McIlroy certainly does enjoy this part of the PGA Tour and has three Florida wins to his name: the 2012 Honda Classic, this event in 2018 and the 2019 Players Championship.

Just looking at Bay Hill, he's made the top 10 in each of the last five years so it's hard to see him finishing outside of the places and he may be a better bet at 10s than Rahm at 8s.

Final Bet: Chris Kirk each-way @ 67.066/1

I looked at former Bay Hill winner, Martin Laird, at 125s and also Keegan Bradley.

But I'll end with a punt on Chris Kirk at 66/1.

Back to those green speeds, Kirk said something last week that resonates when looking at the examination paper here.

Talking about the return to Bermuda greens of Florida following the West Coast Swing, Kirk said: "It's definitely a comfort factor for me. Bermuda and sometimes bent, but mostly Bermuda, has been mostly what I've had the most success on for sure and the faster the better seems like.

"For me, I tend to struggle with the greens that are a little bit slower where I feel like I got to hit at it some.

"If I know the greens are real quick and I can just kind of let it go, that seems to be when I hit my best putts and I seem to be pretty decent at reading Bermuda greens, so it's a combination of a number of things, but yeah, it's just what I'm most comfortable on."

Kirk landed the each-way cash at The Honda Classic and an improvement in his putting stats was a big part of the reason, the Georgia Bulldog ranking 18th for SG: Putting (3.402).

His work on and around the greens has definitely benefitted him at Bay Hill and Kirk has made the top 15 at the API in four of his last five appearances. That includes a best of tied eighth last year.

With tied 14th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and then tied seventh last week, Kirk's game is definitely on the up and he's finished in the top 20 for SG: Tee-To-Green at both tournaments.

He actually finished in positive figures for all the main Strokes Gained categories at TPC Scottsdale and PGA National so there's lots to like about Kirk's game.

It's easy to forget that he's a four-time PGA Tour winner and has played in a Presidents Cup. In other words, the sweet-swinging 36-year-old has an extra touch of class and there are hints that win No.5 may not be far away.

He does have a recent Korn Ferry Tour win under his belt and, notably, that came in Florida (2020 King & Bear Classic).

Add that to his PGA results and Kirk has a win and two further top eights in three of his last six Florida starts.

Dave's P/L for 2021/22

Staked: £570
Returned: £330.75
P/L: -£239.25

Previous:
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89