Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 55/1

• 50/151.00 Keegan Bradley has a series of fast starts at Bay Hill

• 50/151.00 Jordan Spieth has a hot putter and can go low

• 55/156.00 Sahith Theegala is showing good signs this season

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Arnold Palmer Invitational weather forecast for Thursday

It's a sunny day in Orlando with temperatures reaching the mid-to-high 80s in the afternoon.

Wind speeds are around 9-12mph for most of the golfing day although it could gust a little harder than that in the morning.

The 72-man field is divided into two-balls, who all go off from the first tee. The first pair out hit away at 7:40am with the final pair striking their opening shots at 1.50pm. 

Fun fact: the last five first-round leaders at tough Bay Hill were all major winners - Rory McIlroy twice, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry and Wyndham Clark. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 1: Keegan Bradley @ 50/151.00

Keegan Bradley is a big fan of Bay Hill.

Starting with a pair of top threes way back in 2013 and 2014, he's made 13 straight cuts and his last four visits show four top 11s, including fifth last year.

Fast starts have been part of the deal too. Last year's US Ryder Cup skipper was second after 18 holes in both 2025 and 2019, while he also has FRL positions of fifth (2023) and seventh twice.

He's been a little inconsistent in his four PGA Tour starts this season but at Pebble Beach he opened with a 63 to lie second following the opening lap while he's played some good stuff in TGL, helping Boston Common top the regular season standings.

Bradley, an afternoon starter at 12:35pm local, is the headline bet at 50s (1/4 Odds, 5 Places). 

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 2: Jordan Spieth @ 50/151.00

Jordan Spieth has only played Bay Hill three times but probably wishes he'd started teeing it up at Arnie's place earlier.

It wasn't until 2021 that he made his first apperance and it ended well, the three-time major winner finishing fourth.

He matched that fourth place on his next visit in 2023 after sitting second at halfway before adding a top 30 last time.

In terms of Thursday positions, Spieth's Bay Hill starts read 15-5-8.

So far this season without creating many headlines he's shot all four rounds in the 60s for 24th in the Sony Open, started out with a 66 on the way to 29th at Pebble and finished 12th last time out at the Genesis Invitational after a closing 66.

Widening it out, he's shot 70 or lower on his last six PGA Tour starts and, although on different (poa annua) greens, it catches the eye that he's ranked 2nd (Riviera) and 3rd (Pebble) for SG: Putting in his last two starts.

In summary, there are some promising signs for a punt at 50s.

Spieth tees off at 11:55am and, like Bradley, I'll hope he can continue the trend of major winners setting the pace here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 3: Sahith Theegala @ 55/156.00

Sahith Theegala's revival in 2026 had its share of column inches as he delivered back-to-back top 10s at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open and followed it with 18th in Phoenix.

That comeback story has been rather forgotten but although 60th at Pebble was disappointing, his 22nd at Riviera (71-70-68-67) was another good knock.

Clearly, he's going in the right direction again and Bay Hill could present another good opportunity.

Forget last year's missed cut when he was having a rough trot and instead focus on his sixth place in 2024 and 14th in 2023.

Two years ago, Theegala's opening 68 put him fourth after round one and he has the course and current form to make an early impression once more.

He's out in the last group of the day at 1:50pm. 

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