Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 30/1 to 50/1

• 30/131.00 Russell Henley has the stats to win here again

• 50/151.00 Jason Day is also a former Bay Hill champion

• 35/136.00 Shane Lowry is a good each-way price despite last week's collapse

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Introduction to the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The tournament that honours one of the greatest has been played since 1966.

Its current iteration is a 72-man Signature Series event so for the third time in four weeks the elite golfers of the PGA Tour gather again.

Too much of a good thing? It seems that way and maybe a revamped PGA Tour schedule will stop the somewhat jaded feeling that the same players are doing battle once more.

Scottie Scheffler is seeking a hat-trick at Bay Hill after wins in 2022 and 2024, and in both years he went on to win the US Masters just over a month later. Will that pattern repeat?

Once a good event for the Europeans, Americans have now won the last five editions after Russell Henley, tipped here at 40/141.00, took the title last year.

This 7,466-yard par 72 which features fast, Bermuda greens is now one seriously tough test and only Scheffler (2024) has shot lower than 11-under in the last six years.

Fairways and greens are tough to hit while long approach shots - there are plenty - have to be accurate as nine of the 18 holes feature water. That's Florida golf for you.

Looking at past winners and those at the top of the leaderboard, most rank highly for All-Around.

Notably, the top two in the All-Around category on the PGA Tour in 2026 are Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler!

Bet 1: Russell Henley @ 30/131.00

Yes, I'm going back in on Henley again this year - and it's not by way of thank you.

Given the requirement of an all-round game, 12 months ago Henley was a great fit. Heading to Bay Hill, he ranked 26th for SG: Approach, 19th for SG: Putting and ninth for Driving Accuracy.

In those categories this year, he's 29th for Approach, 41st for Putting and 11th for Driving Accuracy. I make it that he's just one of three in the field who rank in the top 50 for all three.

Those strong numbers have helped him to an eighth (American Express) and two 19ths (Sony Open and Pebble Beach) from four starts which is decent groundwork for a big Florida Swing.

Looking at his performances in the Sunshine State, Henley has a win, a fourth and a sixth in his last five Florida starts. The win and the fourth came in the last two editions of this event.

As noted last year, Henley plays tough courses well and he can cope better than most with the winds.

The former point is highlighted by his US Open record which shows four top 15s in the last five years after a 10th in 2025. As for the latter, that's backed up by fifth and 10th in the last two Open Championships.

Indeed, strong links players have always done well at Bay Hill.

Finally, this tournament seems to have a tradition of throwing up back-to-back winners. 

Tiger Woods won it four times in a row (2000-2003) while he made successful defences in 2009 and 2013.

Then we have the much more unlikely examples of Loren Roberts (1994-1995) and Matt Every (2014-2015), who spent most of his non-golfing time back then wishing Oasis would get back together. Every, who named his first son Liam, must have been a happy fella in 2025. 

Henley, a bit of a musician himself actually (he plays guitar), can hopefully thrive at Bay Hill once more and prove why he's No.7 in the OWGR and No.6 in the Datagolf World Rankings.

Bet 2: Jason Day @ 50/151.00 

Jason Day started the season with a bang when finishing runner-up at The American Express.

He had two good rounds at Torrey Pines before settling for 38th and he added 24th at Pebble Beach after closing with a trio of 68s.

A missed cut at Riviera isn't ideal but there's good reason to believe he can bounce back here.

Day won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2016 and in the last three years he's posted 10th in 2023 and eighth last year.

His putter has always been a good weapon on the slick Bermuda greens and he's gained strokes on the greens here in seven of his last eight visits, ranking in the top 25 for SG: Putting in all of those (fifth last year).

So far in 2026, Day ranks 17th for SG: Putting so the flatstick is working well again while he's 23rd for SG: Around The Green. The last two Bay Hill winners topped that latter category.

Day admits the vibes are good whenever he returns to Bay Hill, a place where he's had six top 25s in his last nine appearances, including the win 10 years ago.

A few years ago, he revealed: "It's always nice to be able to come to Florida, play, especially at Arnie's place. This is a very special place to me. I used to live here when I first came over here to America, I mean like only five minutes down the road."

Day, now 38, has seen 45-year-old Justin Rose win this season and he went close himself at La Quinta.

On a course where he's always been a strong performer, the 50/151.00 looks good in a 72-man field.

Bet 3: Shane Lowry @ 35/136.00

Okay, on first glance this looks like madness.

How could you back a player who suffered such a horrid collapse last week when he had the tournament in his hands? Surely he's damaged goods.

But maybe the cries of 'how will he come back from this?' are misjudged. World-class golfers aren't like you and me.

Let's start with the basics before going into the more interesting stuff.

Firstly, Lowry is a superb performer in Florida - eight straight top 20s, five doubling as top 10s - while he's posted seventh and third at Arnie's the last two years.

Secondly, his game looks in great shape for another strong week. Lowry ranks 12th for SG: Approach this season, 19th for SG: Putting and 40th for Driving Accuracy.

So far in 2026, he has a second, a third, an eighth and nothing worse than 26th from five starts.

Okay, we don't know quite what's going on in his head as last week's Cognizant meltdown was the second time this season he's thrown a tournament away.

The first came in the Dubai Invitational when he followed that up with a decent 26th in the Dubai Desert Classic.

But here's a fascinating little nugget. Going back through his records, I can find just one example of the Irishman recording back-to-back top fives in the last four seasons.

That was in 2024 when he came fourth at the Cognizant Classic and followed it up with third here.

And what happened at the Cognizant two years ago? Here's some lines from the report: "Lowry shared the lead after three rounds at Palm Beach Gardens, but saw his hopes of catching Austin Eckroat on Sunday hit by twice finding water."

Ring any bells?!

The negative takeaway is that he's a serial tournament blower. The positive spin is that he put the disappointment behind him by coming to Bay Hill and finishing third.

Lowry, correctly, received praise for talking to the press straight after his Cognizant collapse and when you've won an Open, holed the decisive putt in a Ryder Cup and have a beautiful family to go home to, perspective can be easier to attain.

And although it was all very raw, even in the immediate aftermath Lowry kind of had a sense that the golfing gods are an odd bunch. "I said to (caddie) Darren (Reynolds), how do I feel like this now when I went through what I did last September in Bethpage and got through that fine. I just felt like it was weird out there; I just couldn't feel the club face the last three holes then after my tee shot on 16. It was strange."

Sure, there will be some demons if he's in a winning position this week but 35/136.00 with eight each-way places given his current and course form (he putts these greens well) definitely has appeal.

Get back on the horse Shane. It's often the best way.

Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth Arnold Palmer Invitational preview

*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf