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Trinbago/Falcons face elimination
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Providence pitch tricky to call
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Akeal's top bat odds way too big at 100s
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Kings underrated
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Hetmyer could produce again
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Trinbago Knight Riders
Saturday 13 September, 01.00
TV: Live on TNT
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips
Trinbago Knight Riders collapsed in the ladder run-in to throw away a top-two finish. They lost their last three matches when only one success would have been enough. It was perhaps understandable that they struggled against St Lucia Kings and Guyana Amazon Warriors but a hammering by Barbados Royals, already eliminated, was not a good look.
The nerves could be jangling. Another defeat and it's all over. And they should right to feel nervous against a Falcons team who have equipped themselves well. We have consistently said that Falcons are a durable, competitive outfit and their fourth-placed finish was well-deserved. They won their last two to make sure and will also take confidence from an eight-run win over TKR in their third match.
In that contest Falcons squeezed TKR perfectly defending 168 after a late, late show with the bat from Fabian Allen and Imad Wasim. Obed McCoy took four wickets but the real clue to the success was the ten overs of spin which cost just 6.8 an over. On a Psurface which can take turn, it is a good portent for an upset.
Falcons are the second-most economical team in the play-offs. This was perfectly highlighted by bowling out Guyana for just 99 on this very ground. It suggests the 17/102.70 offered by Betafir Sportsbook could be value. Betfair Exchange may offer even better odds on Falcons when prices become available.
TKR do not stand out with bat or ball among the final four, producing identical run rates with both. After a fast start with the bat from the likes of Colin Munro, they have lost their way. Alex Hales has got stuck in a rut while Nic Pooran hasn't delivered the match-winning innings many would have expected. His strike rate of 126 is a major disappointment.
That inconsistent batting does throw up early top-bat value. Akeal Hosein is priced at [100/1] and anyone who has seen Akeal strike a ball will know that he should be a third of the price. He is striking at 164 this term. He batted at No 5 in the game before defeat by Royals so there is a chance of promotion. And one can never rule out a late, thrashed 30-odd winning the market at this ground.
Another TKR performer who might be underrated is Andre Russell with the ball. Dre Russ has been consistent in flying under the radar for top bowler. He has the third best strike rate of the TKR crew and with cheap wickets often within his scope at the death, the 4/15.00 stands out.
Back Akeal Hosein top TKR bat
Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings
Thursday 18 September, 01:00
TV: Live on TNT
Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings CPL Tips
Guyana benefitted from the Trinbago collapse and won their last two to sneak into the top two positions. The winner of this contest goes straight to the final and it could be a blockbuster. It is a repeat of the 2024 final which was won by Kings.
The sides met on Saturday with Guyana taking the points in a must win. It was extremely tight with Guyana needing a four off the last ball to get up to chase 186. Dwaine Pretorius hit a six. It earned Guyana revenge for their defeat by Kings earlier in the tournament.
The two sides appears to be well-matched and we can't agree that the hosts should be as skinny as 1.758/11. They have shown some flaky tendencies this tournament, not least with their batting. The top order just hasn't fired.
Kings have terrific nous and adaptability. And they are unlikely to be perturbed by Guyana's excellent home record. Kings have won twice in their last four visits. Don't be surprised to see them take the win and head straight to the showpiece. They should be shorter and we would expect the market to mature to get with them at around the 2.255/4 mark.
In the last 10 first-innings at Providence the average score is 165, with a 60% chase bias. More than 180 has been busted in the last two. But there are two different pitches. The flat surface that we saw the last time these sides met and the minefield when Guyana were rolled for 99. Going for extremes at both ends of the spectrum for runs could pay off. Both teams to score 170 could be value at 5/23.50 for example.
Players to follow include David Wiese at a whopping 40/141.00 for top Kings bat while Shimron Hetmyer catches the eye again at 9/25.50 for top GAW bat. We talked up Hettie against Royals and he duly delivered. Normally we would swerve a player to go back-to-back but Hetmyer has it in his locker to put together a run of scores. He's that type of player; feast or famine.
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