-
Dominant Kiwis the right favourites
-
Tie trade a strong option
-
New Zealand have beaten SA twice
-
Coetzee still a bet for long-shot backers at 100/1
New Zealand v South Africa
Saturday 23 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT
New Zealand v South Africa T20 team news
New Zealand have not lost in this tri-series yet. And neither Zimbabwe nor South Africa have really landed a punch. They have been shuffling their pack and have a host of options, all strong, to take the victory.
Devon Conway is expected to return to the opening slot alongside Tim Seifert who has won back-to-back top bats. They can deploy Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell to find the gaps before late-order blast potential from Mark Chapman and Michael Bracewell.
They are spoilt for choice with the new ball. Matt Henry has had rest time and is surely in their best XI. One or two from Henry, Adam Milne and Will O'Rourke may miss out if they want to find room for Bevon Jacobs.
Possible NZ XI: Conway, Seifert, Ravindra, Mitchell, Chapman, Jacobs, Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Henry, Milne
South Africa may focus on taking pace off the ball to try and get a grip on the game. That means deploying Nqaba Peter, George Linde and Senuran Muthusamy as spin options while also batting down to No 8 with Corbin Bosch. Gerald Coetzee may miss out. Likewise a pace option in either Nandre Burger, Lungi Ngidi or Kwena Maphaka.
Last time in the head-to-head the Saffers tried Rassie van der Dussen as opener with Luhan-dre Pretorius in the middle-order. That might be reversed. Surely they need to utilise the powerplay with one of the best hitters?
Possible SA XI: Pretorius, Hendricks, van der Dussen, Hermann, Brevis, Bosch, Linde, Muthusamy, Peter, Maphaka, Burger
New Zealand v South Africa T20 pitch report
The Harare surface is not going to get any quicker any time soon so big runs are not expected. The markets are wise to this. But they might not be wise to the Kiwis working out a way to make the most of it. Scores of 173 against South Africa when they batted first in a previous meeting and the 190 against Zimbabwe on Thursday suggests they have found a way.
A par line on the Exchange for the Kiwis to breach early 160s could well be a play. They are likely to target 170, a tick up from earlier aspirations in the tournament when 150-odd might have been enough. We are not convinced South Africa have the same nous, witness the score of 134 against New Zealand in the only time they have batted first in the tournament. Their par line on the Exchange batting first could be mid 150s, which has the feel of a short.
New Zealand v South Africa T20 match prediction
New Zealand are 1.654/6 with South Africa 2.526/4. It is hard not to reckon those odds are about right. The Kiwis beat South Africa by 21 runs and seven wickets. Those are very healthy margins of victory.
To that end, it is also difficult to reckon that South Africa are able to get into the game. That might be lazy thinking, though. Surely in the must-win contest they screw their heads on a bit and fight hard.
That means getting the batting order right, recognising the importance of the powerplay and drilling their bowlers to bowl back of a length, at times mixing up their speed. It's not rocket science. If they do that it is not inconceivable that they can make it a choice affair.
Likewise we note the possibility of the tie trade from 60.059/1, a price which holds pretty much solid in-play and sometimes even gets bigger. A last-over or even late innings finish in the chase sees that price collapse for a basic in-and-out trade. By quadrupling the original stake on the lay button with an order of 12.011/1 all is good.
New Zealand v South Africa T20 player bets
We tried to be too cute on serial winners Reeza Hendricks and Seifert for top bat and missed out. Off we go to take a long, hard look at ourselves. With both having won there is now slim pickings. Chapman is in the win zone but the 5/16.00 doesn't scream rick. And for South Africa we cannot ignore the 100/1101.00 on Gerald Coetzee at No 8 if he plays. Corbin Bosch isn't too shabby at 25/126.00, either. Coetzee we were on previously so if he was the wrong price then the rationale remains. Money back if a non-runner.
Back Gerald Cotzee top SA bat