Trading Tennis on Betfair : Give me a break!

To profit from Trading Tennis you need to anticipate where the odds will move. Fortunately, it is possible to work out when that might occur and what impact it will have. Better than that, by using Bet Angel you can test and trade your ideas at no risk while you explore this fascinating market.

How do odds move?

While winning a service game will shorten the odds on a player, it's a break that is the key driver behind a big change in odds and a decent profit. It's important to note that there is a balance to be had. Winning a serve is more frequent than getting broken. So a service win moves the odds less, but more frequently, than a break of serve. A break of serve is less common, except for the moments you will read about in a minute, but much more significant in terms of the movement in the chance of a player winning a match and their odds.

One huge advantage you can get by using software such as Bet Angel, is that we have a specialist Tennis trading tool, Tennis trader, that allows you to look up the chance of winning or losing a service game even before the match has started. It will also allow you to see what impact that will have, not only in one game but across the set and match. That's key if you are going to set up a trade with a potentially positive expectancy.

Give me a break

Now we know that a break of serve is significant from a trading perspective. That begs the question, where are we likely to find a break of serve in a Tennis match?

The first thing to note, obviously, is that the relative skill difference between players is a key factor in whether a break of serve occurs or not. If both players are equally matched then a break is more likely. The key here is how often somebody wins a point when they serve.

With an 80% chance of a winning a point on serve, the chance of a break of serve is just a paltry 2.2%. This increases to 9.9% when the chance of winning a service point drops to 70%. It moves up to 17% at 65% and 26.4% at 60%. You can see that every percentage increase in skill on your serve dramatically diminishes the chance of your opponent breaking. An ideal contest would a fiercely competitive match between two top players who don't want to lose or two lowly players who can't win!

A player such as Ivo Karlovic has a very strong serve and this becomes a dominant factor.. It's very hard to break Karlovic's serve. If you want to do some research, the percentages for the service games won and the first and second serve points won are freely available from the main tennis association websites.

The reasons for a break

The reason for a loss of a service game tends to falls into two key components. If a player is making a number of unforced errors then they are effectively handing points to an opponent. If, when looking at equal skill levels, they hand two points to their opponent; the chance of a break will then exceed 50%, or one in two games. Unforced errors can be very costly. Watching a match to see if unforced errors are a regular occurrence can pinpoint when a break is more likely. If you are watching the match on TV most Tennis channels will keep you updated on the relative strengths and weakness of players. Look out for unforced errors.

If the receiving player is playing well then it makes sense that they will put the server under pressure. But it's important to note that there are times during the match when this can be more valuable. As the match progresses either player may look for an opportunity to break an opponent. If you served first for the set, as long as you win your service game, you get the chance to put pressure on your opponent.

But the crunch point tends to come towards to end of the set. If you just served at 4-4 to go 5-4 ahead, you now have the chance to get a break and win the set. So putting in a few speculative shots at this point, as the receiving player, would be a good idea. It is at this point that players are much more likely to push for a break by getting a speculative winner.

Setting up a break

The set you are in will make a difference as well. We took Tennis Trader and looked at the profit we could make with a break in an evenly balanced match. In the first set, from an even scoreline, a break would yield a cash out value of £2.55 but in the fifth set £6.80. That's merely a reflection on the importance of a break. If the break occurs early in the match then it can be won back, later in the match and that's less likely.

Specialist tools for Tennis traders

Bet Angel contains some unique Tennis trading tools that will vastly improve your ability to trade Tennis. The Watch list can provide you with quick and easy, customisable, summary of all the matches and current scores in each of them. Live scores will allow you to quickly see which markets are of most interest and update all scores in the background while you trade. Bet Angel's Tennis trader tool will allow you to project forward the score in any match to assess whether a trade is worth doing and you can use it to model scenarios in each match. The advanced automation will allow you to trade Tennis matches completely automatically. We have a number of examples of automation that you can download directly from our forum. Bet Angel will make trading Tennis a really comfortable experience.

So next time you are watching a match, why not look to take a break and profit from it!

Download a free trial of Bet Angel today!