A Baseball Betting Guide for the Beginner, Part 2

MLB / Mike Robb / 23 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Match betting and in-play tips...

Before punting on a match there are some important things you need to know...

• Home advantage is very important. Is the park hitter or pitcher-friendly? Small parks are easier to hit home runs in, for example. What type of batters does each team have? Big hitting teams like small parks, and odds will reflect this.
• How much rest has each starting pitcher had? A well rested but not too rusty pitcher in form will alter prices.
• Games can be called by the umpire due to bad weather but at least five innings (4.5 innings if home team is leading) have to be played. Totals markets (total number of runs for example) and Run Lines (handicap markets such as 'Team X +1.5 runs') are voided in this case unless unconditionally determined, but Match Odds markets are not. In other words - check the weather reports!
• Game can go to extra innings if a tie after the usual 9 innings are completed.

The big markets

Run Line - This is just another word for handicap, and Betfair usually offers two lines for each game, including almost always +/-1.5 for each team. The home team does not bat the ninth inning if winning because the home team has the advantage of batting last. So if the home team is the favourite the -1.5 run line has a larger effect on the odds than if the away team was favourite, due to the likelihood that the home team will bat one inning less than the away team.

Total Runs - How many runs will be scored in the match by both teams combined? The pitcher's ability and form is the biggest factor in this market but also a large factor is the park. If it is a small park then more home runs are likely and vice versa.

Important things to know about in-play betting...
:
• Deficits can be turned around quickly when there are runners on the bases. A home run with bases loaded (runners on first, second and third base at the same time) will change the complexion of a game completely by scoring four runs from just one hit.
• Star batters don't always get to swing the bat as pitchers may deliberately walk the big hitter rather than concede multiple runs. This is done by intentionally pitching wide of the strike zone.
• After watching a lot of baseball you will notice which players are 'clutch' (reliable in tense situations) and which players are not. A good stat to look for is how batters do when runners are in scoring position.

Where can you watch the matches? The MLB is fairly well-served by the media...

• Channel 5 broadcast two games per week. Sunday is the live game of the week, with another shown on Wednesday, though often delayed.
• NASN (the North American Sports Network) broadcasts live games almost every night. Go to www.nasn.com for TV listings. The website is also a good portal for US sports news and has good beginners' guides.
• You can watch all games live at www.mlb.tv for a small fee, though pictures come delayed by approximately one minute.

Good sites for info...

www.nasn.com
www.espn.com
www.sportsillustrated.com
www.foxsports.com
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb