The Peter Principle

Poker Strategy / Marcus Bateman / 24 November 2009 / Leave a comment

The Peter principle is a concept introduced by Dr. Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull in their excellent book The Peter Principle. It refers to the concept that within any hierarchy, people will be promoted to their level of incompetence, due to the fact that at each level before their level of incompetence, they will work well, and thus be eligible for promotion.

It is very easy to think that there is not much difference between $3/$6 and $5/$10, and if you run good at $5/$10 for a while, $10/$20 can become very tempting, and so on until you self destruct at a stake way above your actual level of ability.

As a result, over time, most posts become occupied by people who are not actually able to carry out their duties, with the actual work being done by employees who have yet to reach their level of incompetence.

This is a very valid point in poker, and one that you see time and time again if you watch new players begin their climb up the stakes. All but two or three players in the world have a level which they will be unable to beat, and constantly 'promoting' yourself up to this level where you will lose is a recipe for disaster in the long run.

The key problem with the Peter Principle is that it is a very easy trap to fall into, especially if you hit a good run of form for a while. It is very easy to think that there is not much difference between $3/$6 and $5/$10, and if you run good at $5/$10 for a while, $10/$20 can become very tempting, and so on until you self destruct at a stake way above your actual level of ability.

Although higher stakes games have the potential to be more lucrative than the level you are currently playing at, they will not be lucrative if you cannot beat them over a decent sample size. It is crucial in poker that you you stay a level or two below your point off incompetence, and only take shots at moving up when you have the confidence, practice, and bankroll to move up a level.

Simply jumping up the stakes once you beat a certain level for a while is a recipe for disaster in the long run, and you have to be aware of your own limitations if you want to succeed in poker long term.

One of the best ways to avoid the Peter Principle is to watch games at higher stakes and try and spot mistakes being made. At a certain limit, you will either be unable to spot mistakes, or will start seeing plays that you think are mistakes, but are actually probably just moves at a level way above your head (a great example of this is the recent 'durrr' vs 'Isildur1' match, where 99% of the criticism of 'mistakes' in individual hands on forums or news sites is meaningless, as only about ten people in the world think at a high enough level to understand what is going on in such a match).

A game fitting this criteria will probably be your incompetence level, and should be avoided until your skills and understanding of the game rise, or a total fish sits in such a game. Although tempting to just rush up the stakes when you are winning, if you want to preserve your bankroll it is crucial that you understand your limitations and avoid games that are above your ability level, and ignoring this will break your bankroll faster than basically any other factor in poker.

Related entries

Poker hierachy and islands of ability
Just who is Isildur1?
Being results orientated

Get 40% rakeback at Betfair Poker