Odds versus ranges

Poker Strategy / Marcus Bateman / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Despite feeling that they did everything right and lost to a bad beat, the simple fact is that the call in itself is often a huge mistake, as they were lucky to even run into the lower part of the opponent's range.

Bad poker players will usually tell bad beat stories along the lines of something like this:

'Well I had pocket eights and I just knew he was bluffing so I got my stack all in pre flop and he had just six seven suited and made a flush. Oh well at least I got my money in ahead.'

Although there is a lot wrong with this analysis, I just want to focus on one key area of what makes this sort of thinking a problem, which lies in comparing direct odds after events. In poker you basically never get to compare odds versus specific hands until after you have made your choice, at which point your thinking (and therefore skill) is by definition over.

Because of this point, good players are perpetually comparing your hand with a range of possible options - not any one specific hand. Take the above example. This can appear like the player in question did everything right, yet beneath the surface there is much more going on here.

If we know that the opponent in this case is only making the same play with hands like suited connectors 10% of the time, but will have jacks or better the other 90%, our hand is clearly a huge dog to call with. Despite feeling that they did everything right and lost to a bad beat, the simple fact is that the call in itself is often a huge mistake, as they were lucky to even run into the lower part of the opponent's range.

Despite sounding extremely counter-intuitive, poker is a game where you can often be making huge mistakes when you appear to get your money in ahead and do the 'right' thing. Miss-estimating bluffing ranges is one example, but so is waiting too long for big hands in tournaments and blinding down to an unplayable stack, or simply not playing enough hands to ever get action.

It is best in poker to bluff with hands that have little showdown value, which means that against good players you will frequently see them turn up with junk in spots where you pat yourself on the back for calling with a marginal hand. However, the good player is very glad to see you calling with those types of hands for the most part, as it just opens you up to endless trips to value town the 90% of the time in the same spot they have big hands. Poker is a lot more complex than just getting your money in good - and thinking extremely carefully about the price on offer against the actual range of hands is fundamental to winning poker.

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