Epsom Preview: If it looks like a classic weekend...

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. If it looks too short, smells too short, and has several rivals close enough on form to suggest it's too short, then it probably is going to win the Derby. We've been here before with Camelot, who was an illogical price for the RP Trophy and won and was an illogical price for the Guineas and won. His reputation distorts the odds, but the hype has largely been justified by his performances; not brilliant, not of a superstar in the making, not even yet the standard of an average Derby winner, but certainly keeping the dream alive, unbeaten all along as well as learning all along, and everything has built up to Saturday when Camelot gets to show what he's really about.

From a betting perspective, most of us are in the same boat - HMS Splinter - when it comes to Camelot in that we're sitting on the fence, with the head saying the odds are wrong but the gut forewarning a win. At least Simon Rowlands, ever scrupulous, has put his neck on the block with a well-reasoned argument to lay Camelot (click HERE to read his article), whereas I drew the long straw and got to waffle on the what, ifs and maybes of a hypothetical Triple Crown bid, which you can read HERE. I'm playing the sickening 'race to enjoy rather than bet in' card in the Derby, but not in the Oaks...

If it looks like a non-stayer, shapes like a non-stayer, and is bred like a non-stayer, then it probably isn't going to stay. That's the theory behind opposing Maybe, and it's a general consensus here at Timeform rather than just my lone voice in the wilderness. It's hard to fathom why Maybe didn't do better in the Guineas given her strength in the betting, her position in the race, and her two-year-old form, some of it on similar ground to what she faced at Newmarket four weeks ago, but neither then nor last season did she run as if a mile and a half would be beneficial.

I'm getting the hots for a place lay, primarily because dubious stayers are the best vehicles for place lays, but also as there's plenty in the way of competition; The Fugue nearly passed her in the Guineas and did surpass her form in the Musidora, the improving Vow looks as if she'll gallop all day, and unbeaten pair Kissed and Kailani are both bred to relish this very test - Kissed is closely related to Poir Moi and Kailani's dam is Oaks winner Kazzia.

If it looks like a certainty, is backed like a certainty, and has the superior form of a certainty, then why did St Nicholas Abbey get beat last time at a Betfair SP of 1.434/9? When somebody, generally an analyst, uses the phrase 'not their finest hour', what they actually mean is 'oh my God what an absolute shocker', and amongst the many fine hours already in the embryonic career of Joseph O'Brien, the Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh wasn't one of them, where he rode St Nicholas Abbey like I rode Dancing Blaze on G1 Jockey, with exactly the same result.

St Nicholas Abbey looks like a certainty again in the Coronation Cup, or the Fishing For An MBE How Brilliant Is The Queen Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup as I believe it's named this year, and with lessons learnt from last time he ought to win the race for the second successive season; in fact, as far as odds-on shots go, he's a much better bet than Camelot, with more evidence to go on less to beat.

Finally, a handicap bet for the meeting, coming in the last on Saturday. If it has raced at the track four times, and won at the track three times, then it probably is an Epsom specialist; and if it turns up back at Epsom, down to his last winning mark, and with an encouraging reappearance behind it, then it probably is a plot. Baldemar won this very race in 2009 off a handicap mark of 82, he won over course and distance last August off a mark of 82, and here he is, for presumably his Cup Final for the year, off a handicap mark of...yes you've guessed it. Stall 9 might normally temper enthusiasm, but such is Baldemar's Epsom expertise that the draw almost doesn't matter - for his previous course wins he was drawn 17 of 17, 4 of 8 and 8 of 8.

So that's what the Epsom meeting is about for me: one Camelot, one Maybe not, Joseph's redemption shot, and a handicap plot.

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