The Betfair Contrarian: Why Toomaline Jack won't win the Greyhound Derby

Derby Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

The Contrarian believes Bandicoot Tipoki could win Saturday's Greyhound Derby

"Do dogs feel the pressure of the big occasion? Sounds unlikely, but it might explain why only two semi-final winners in the last eight years have gone on to win the Derby."

The highlight of the UK greyhound season takes place at Wimbledon on Friday night and The Contrarian has ploughed through the form guide, surveyed the historical trends and found a way for you to make money by swimming against the tide. Here's why you should oppose [2.18] favourite Toomaline Jack...

The reward doesn't justify the risk

It takes an exceptional set of circumstances to convince The Contrarian to back a favourite, but greyhound racing is the least attractive sport of all for doing it. The Derby is a 480 metre race, completed in under half-a-minute, with the difference between the winning dog and the final finisher sometimes being as slim as 0.3 seconds. With margins so thin, betting on a short-priced front runner is a huge risk, though conversely it means that the rewards for siding against such a competitor are very generous.

And this isn't a race for backing favourites

Just three of the last nine favourites have gone on to win the big race, and one of those, Westmead Hawk in 2006, had already proven its pedigree by finishing first the year before. Last year's market leader Ballymac Ruso was forced to settle for fifth as massive outsider Kinda Ready, the longest-priced winner since the race moved to Wimbledon, pinched the victory.

There's another unbeaten qualifier...

Toomaline Jack triumphed in each of its five qualifying rounds, but wasnt the only dog to do so, as the feat was matched by the Hungarian-trained contender Lyreen Mover, who is available at [6.4]. The latter's winning streak is even more emphatic, having delivered seven straight successes, whereas Toomaline Jack had to settle for second in each of its two outings ahead of the qualifiers.

...who is also a speedy starter

The favourite may have recorded faster times in the majority of his races so far, but Lyreen Mover boasts the advantage of being a ridiculously fast starter and is sure to make the most of being drawn on the inside in trap two. The serial-winner is likely to lead into the first corner and, owing to its tenacity, has yet to be caught once in that position at Wimbledon, and that includes races against three of the finalists (Toomaline Jack and [32.0] outsider Adageo are the two finalists it hasn't faced at Wimbledon). In contrast, the punters fancy has been relatively unchallenged, and has faced just one of its three fiercest final rivals (according to the market) in the earlier rounds.

Semi-final success counts for little

Of course, there's no guarantee that it will be either of the in-form competitors. Do dogs feel the pressure of the big occasion? It sounds unlikely, but it might explain this trend: only two semi-final winners in the last eight years have gone on to win the main event. Factor in that two of the last three dogs to win the Derby after victory in its semi-final were already reigning champions (Rapid Ranger in 2001, Westmead Hawk in 2006) and it's clear that you shouldn't read too much into qualifying form.

Lister-trained entries can never be dismissed

There's a reason why Bandicoot Tipoki is the [5.7] second favourite despite losing out to Lyreen Mover in the quarter-finals and Toomaline Jack in the semis, and that's because trainer Charlie Lister has an exceptional Derby record, with four wins to his name, including 1997 champion Some Picture, who romped home in record-breaking time. By contrast, Toomaline Jacks trainer Dolores Ruth has enjoyed just one Derby triumph, courtesy of Shanless Slippy back in 1996.