World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Day one tips from Paul Krishnamurty

10pts NICK O'HERN @ [2.2] TO BEAT SCOTT VERPLANK

Time and again the opening round of the WGC-Accenture Matchplay has been littered with upsets, or to use a more accurate phrase victories for the higher-priced player. In reality most of these games are little more than toss of a coin jobs and only a few results would generate any kind of shock. The best 'outsider' in my view of Round 1 is 'Tiger-slayer' Nick O'Hern to beat Scott Verplank.

The prices here reflect world rankings rather than recent form, and most certainly not previous form in this tournament. On recent evidence there's little to choose between the pair, but in 18-hole matchplay the Australian left-hander has a markedly superior record. Verplank is one of the many top-64 regulars who just don't seem comfortable with the format, only winning four out of 12 matches in eight previous WGC Matchplay bids.

Alternatively, O'Hern's finest hours have come in this event, twice causing a genuine upset by eliminating Tiger Woods. And in stark contrast to the favourite for this match, O'Hern boasts a very impressive return of 10 wins from 14 WGC matches.

6pts JONATHAN BYRD TO BEAT ERNIE ELS @ [2.9]

Again reputation is driving the market here rather than recent form or tournament history. Ernie may well be the undisputed King of Wentworth after winning the other World Matchplay title seven times on that course, but his record in the WGC version is incomparable. His only decent effort came when this tournament was held in Australia against a severely weakened field. When held in the States he has won just two from eight matches - a record that suggests Els is the last player to be piling into at short odds-on.

There's an element of guesswork because Byrd is making his tournament debut, but he always seems to score well in birdie average so is quietly fancied to enjoy this type of format. His reasonable Stateside form of late more or less measures up to Ernie's generally below par efforts over recent months.

12pts STEWART CINK TO BEAT MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ [1.7]

Though generally speaking I'm loathe to pick favourites in this 18-hole matchplay format, I do think Stewart Cink represents a decent odds-on bet to get the better of Miguel-Angel Jiminez. It's not that Cink has been particularly consistent of late, even if an excellent (if extremely distant) third behind Tiger at Torrey Pines on his penultimate start confirms he's in decent nick.

Rather the reason for the bet is the fact that Jiminez looks to be struggling at present. 'The Mechanic' has been well below his best form on all three 2008 starts, and the Spanish player will be giving away considerable driving distance to his opponent. While such a disadvantage may not always be decisive, in head-to-head matchplay it's a significant psychological factor.

8pts NICK DOUGHERTY TO BEAT LUKE DONALD @ [2.5]

This fascinating contest - at least from an English perspective - also looks much closer than the odds suggest. Donald and Dougherty are long-standing friends and former colleagues in the successful Walker Cup side. Rated roughly the same at the time, Donald made a much quicker impact on the world stage which explains his supremacy in betting terms now.

However, Dougherty remains an extremely talented player who has belatedly looked like making strides on the international stage over the last year. Alternatively, prior to a much improved effort at the weekend, Donald had been going backwards over the same period. Once again I'm backing the player here who will enjoy an advantage in driving distance.

10pts NICLAS FASTH TO BEAT RICHARD GREEN @ [1.7]

In pure ranking terms there's no great margin between this pair, with Fasth ranked at 24 to Green's 43. That small differential is no reason in itself for one player to be supported as clear favourite, rather it is their personalities and suitability to this course and format that motivates my choice of bet. Green, renowned as a somewhat nervy finisher, has lost all three previous matches in this event, and could be further disadvantaged at Dove Mountain due to a lack of driving distance.

Alternatively, Fasth is exactly the kind of ultra-competitive character that tends to thrive in matchplay. His WGC record is a five victories from ten matches, an encouraging strike-rate given that he's clearly improved as a player in the last year or so.

Tags: Ernie Els, Jonathan Byrd, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Nick Dougherty, Niclas Fasth, Richard Green, Stewart Cink, WGC Match Play Betting