WGC Match Play Betting: Casey is the banker on day two

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty has the pick of the second day's bets in Tuscon

Yet again, Tiger Woods showed what an unbelievable competitor he is in turning his match against JB Holmes around from a grim position. Trading as high as [15.0] when three down with five to play, Woods hit three birdies and an eagle in the next four holes before halving the last for an improbable one shot victory. Nevertheless, once again we've seen that 18-hole matchplay is the one golf format where the great man is at least vulnerable.

Wednesday's first-round yielded 31 points profit with four wins from five bets. Its early days though as far as the tournament is concerned, so I'm re-investing those profits and a little more on a further five bets from today's set of matches.

10pts CHARLES HOWELL AT [1.94] TO BEAT COLIN MONTGOMERIE

Sky viewers were treated to a very rare sight last night - an upbeat, gracious post-match interview from Colin Montgomerie. In fairness, Monty had good cause to be pleased with himself, having upset the odds to knock out Jim Furyk with some of his best golf in a long time. However, we've long become accustomed to seeing him hit the odd promising round in the States on one day, only to fall by the wayside the next.

In that interview, Colin mentioned that he'd been relieved to draw Furyk, not because he didn't respect the American, but because he was an opponent to whom he wouldn't be ceding an advantage in length off the tee. If that's an issue on his mind, then today's second-round opponent Charles Howell could give the Scot an enormous headache.

The younger man can be expected to hit his tee shots 20 yards further. Howell played really well over the closing holes today to turn around his match from the brink, and has all the right credentials to go a long way in this tournament.

8pts BOO WEEKLEY AT [2.3] TO BEAT SERGIO GARCIA

With the odd exception, these 18-hole matchplay affairs are toss of a coin jobs. Therefore, to back a player at odds-on, you really should be confident about the player concerned. As far as this one is concerned, I can't imagine how anyone could be confident backing Sergio Garcia at [1.75].

The Spaniard has done very little anywhere since throwing away the Open at Carnoustie, and has become quite possibly the worst short putter I've ever seen in the upper echelons of the game. In fact, on all recent evidence I'm not sure he should be favourite at all against Weekley. I've already argued Boo's case in the Find Me a 100 Winner column and remain confident he can keep the dream alive for at least one more round.

8pts NICLAS FASTH AT [2.3] TO BEAT VIJAY SINGH

Another dodgy favourite could be Vijay Singh, who has lost at this last-32 stage in six of his eight previous appearances in this event. He needed an extra hole to get past one of the tournament's rank outsiders, Peter Hanson, in the first round and will probably need to improve on that to cope with the more threatening challenge of Hanson's compatriot.

Fasth needed just 13 holes to land my first round bet against Richard Green, and remains an excellent big-priced trade for the tournament. That impressive win now takes his strike-rate in this event to 55%, a figure that is improving all the time.

12pts PAUL CASEY AT [1.7] TO BEAT BRADLEY DREDGE

Banker of the day has to be Casey, who played the best golf of anyone yesterday to beat Robert Karlsson in a cracking match. A bogey-free nine-under par round left the strong suggestion that, at last, Casey has come through the other side of a disappointing recent run.

At his best, Casey would have to be a very strong contender this week, particularly on the evidence of his facile win in the 2006 renewal of the other World Matchplay event at Wentworth. He also made the most of his advantage in driving distance on this course last year, winning three matches out of four on that occasion.

He must start a very strong favourite against Dredge, who remains a rank outsider despite yesterday's shock victory over Rory Sabbatini. The Welshman deserves much credit for that success, but is unlikely to be able to repeat the trick.

10pts JONATHAN BYRD AT [2.0] TO BEAT ANDRES ROMERO

Going into the tournament, Byrd was in much better form than today's Argentinian opponent. Having each knocked out a South African major winner on the first day, this pair are now rated equally to reach the last-16. It has to be said that neither were up against much, but Byrd's performance looks the better. Romero's match with Goosen was a dire affair, whereas at least Byrd managed to shoot six birdies for his 13-hole destruction of Els.

Romero remains a player of considerable potential, as his fine efforts in the last two Open championships showed. But he hasn't shown any form of note since last summer, and is still an inexperienced, erratic player who struggles to produce anywhere near top-level golf when everything isn't in perfect tune. I doubt he'll have enough in the locker to match up to three-time PGA Tour winner Byrd.