Tour de France Betting Tips: Wout van Aert value at 10/1 on Stage 13

• Jasper Philipsen (3.412/5) remains overvalued by the market

• Biniam Girmay (5.04/1) should be favourite

• Better value, though, lies with Wout van Aert (11.010/1)

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What's the stage like?

Like Stage 12, another day of tension between the sprinters and breakaway merchants. At only 165km, with some small climbs inside the last quarter, the teams of the fast men may struggle to bring back a strong breakaway.

If they do, the run-in to Pau (the most-visited city in Tour history), with a slight downhill, dead-straight, 500m drag race to the finish, is straightforward. The same finish was used in 2018, when sprinter Arnaud Demare (40.039/1) took the honours.

Who are the favourites?

Despite another not won on Stage 12, the market persists with viewing Jasper Philipsen (3.412/5) as favourite for these sprint stages. The form suggests others should hold that mantle. If Philipsen's team gives him an armchair ride - something they've only managed once in this Tour - he may win, but he can't be backed as those odds.

Biniam Girmay (5.04/1), the winner of Stage 12, should be the favourite, especially as he will thrive on this slightly more difficult route. He's the most likely winner, but his odds are not especially generous.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

The mystery form of Wout van Aert (11.010/1) continues its up-and-down journey. Crucially on Stage 12, though, he was in the ascendancy, and was probably unlucky not to win. Those odds look generous and he's worth a decent bet.

If there is going to be a bigger-priced winner, it's most likely going to be the Arnaud Demare (40.039/1). He has had a woeful couple of years but was in the mix on Stage 12 and would love to repeat on a finish where he has tasted success before.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Another quiet day in the General Classification, and expect the Points Classification to be all-but concluded by the stage's end.

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