Tour de France Tips: Wout van Aert at 99/1 is the value on Stage 21

• Remco Evenepoel (3.02/1) will dislike route

• Jonas Vingegaard (11.010/1) is not in the same form as last year

• Wout van Aert (100.099/1) has a chance

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

Very different to what we are used to. With the Olympics laying claim to Parisian streets, the finish of the Tour relocates to Nice. And if that isn't enough, they end it with an Individual Time Trial, for the first time since the dramatic 1989 Tour.

It's a hard 34km, too. Climbing from sea level in the first half up to the Col d'Eze at 508 metres, the out-and-out time triallists will not be suited by this test. Expect the General Classification guys to be in the ascendancy.

Who are the favourites?

Tadej Pogacar (1.654/6) is the likely winner. For all the fears of post-Giro fatigue, he seems to be in better shape than anyone at the end of a gruelling three weeks, and with a course that should suit him more than Remco Evenepoel (3.02/1), it's likely Pogacar will comfortably overturn the 12-second deficit to Evenepoel witnessed in the Stage 7 time trail, totting up his sixth stage win.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Jonas Vingegaard (11.010/1) is not without a chance. After all, on Stage 16 in last year's Tour, he took 98 seconds out of Pogacar on a not dissimilar course. Vingegaard is not the rider he was then, though, and it would represent contrariness to recommend a bet on him at what are not overly generous odds.

For a speculative interest, Wout van Aert (100.099/1) is a better bet. Like Vingegaard, there are doubts about his form following early-season injury, but he's had a relatively quiet Tour, and it's worth remembering that for a few seasons he was second-best time trialist in the world, behind the all-conquering Filippo Ganna. Van Aert has won over routes like this, and is the best bet to surprise Pogacar.

How will it affect the overall markets?

The jerseys of the General Classification, Mountains Classification, and Points Classification are now all settled, bar some incident that prevents a rider from finishing the time trial.

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