World Snooker Championship 2025: 10-year trends point to...

• Dave Tindall looks at 10 years of Crucible form

• Age, tournament record and more feed into his research

• Dave's trends picked out 28/129.00 winner Kyren Wilson in 2024

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This annual trends preview has worked out very nicely in the last few years. 

In 2022, the top two in my points rankings - Judd Trump and Ronnie O'Sullivan - contested the final.

And after Luca Brecel busted every trend going when winning in 2023, this column delivered a 28/129.00 winner after it identified Kyren Wilson as the highest points scorer in the top half of the draw last year.

So, that's the plan again in 2025: see what the trends reveal and pick a player out from each half of the 32-man draw.

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We begin by looking at the last 10 winners and how they shaped up at the time of their triumphs:

2024 - Kyren Wilson

Age at time: 32
Seeding: 12th
Crucible appearances: 5
Previous Crucible Best: Final
Previous year: R2
Won a ranking event that season: No

2023 - Luca Brecel

Age at time: 28
Seeding: 13th
Crucible appearances: 5
Previous Crucible Best: R1
Previous year: R1
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2022 - Ronnie O'Sullivan

Age at time: 46
Seeding: 2nd
Crucible appearances: 29
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: R2
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2021 - Mark Selby

Age at time: 37
Seeding: 4th
Crucible appearances: 16
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: SF
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2020 - Ronnie O'Sullivan

Age at time: 44
Seeding: 6th
Crucible appearances: 27
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: R1
Won a ranking event that season: No

2019 - Judd Trump

Age at time: 29
Seeding: 7th
Crucible appearances: 9
Previous Crucible Best: Final
Previous year: QF
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2018 - Mark Williams

Age at time: 43
Seeding: 7th
Crucible appearances: 19
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: DNQ
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2017 - Mark Selby

Age at time: 33
Seeding: 1st
Crucible appearances: 12
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: Win
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

2016 - Mark Selby

Age at time: 32
Seeding: 2nd
Crucible appearances: 11
Previous Crucible Best: Win
Previous year: R2
Won a ranking event that season: No

2015 - Stuart Bingham

Age at time: 38
Seeding: 10th
Crucible appearances: 8
Previous Crucible Best: QF
Previous year: R1
Won a ranking event that season: Yes

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The Points System

So let's turn to the scores for the 2025 event.

As usual I'm only looking at the top 16 seeds. True, qualifiers have won before - Shaun Murphy in 2005 and Terry Griffiths in 1979 - but they're incredibly rare. A non-seed lifting the trophy would come as a massive surprise.

Let's break off then and list our first category...

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Age

I'm awarding points based on how often each age group won across the last 10 editions. So, as five 30-somethings triumphed in the study period, anyone in their 30s this year is awarded 5pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 2pts
In their 30: 5pts
In their 40s: 3pts
In their 50s: 0pts

Although the Class of 92 - Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins and Mark Williams - have continued to roll back the years, players in their 30s have the best record at The Crucible in the last 10 years.

Kyren Wilson was 32 when he lifted the trophy last year so was a good fit.

Mark Williams is now 50 by the way so he doesn't score in this category. 

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Seeding

As noted, in the last 10 years every champion was ranked in the top 16.

Wilson was 12th last year but, overall, the winner is more likely to come from the top eight rather than 9th to 16th - which makes sense of course. In seven of the last 10 years, a top eight seed has won so those in that category get 7pts.

Players seeded 1-8: 7pts
Players seeded 9-16: 3pts

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Crucible Appearances

Experience of The Crucible seems absolutely imperative and up until Belgian trends buster Luca Brecel, every winner in the last 10 years had played there at least eight times. Brecel had played five but Kyren Wilson got the trends back on track when winning last year on his 10th appearance in Sheffield.

That's bang in the sweetspot, with half of the last 10 having made 8-12 appearances inclusive.

Between 8 and 12 past appearances inc: 5pts
Between 13 and 19 appearances inc: 2pts
Made 20 or more appearances: 2pts
Under 8 appearances: 1pt

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Best World Championship Result

A simple one now. The trends show that the most likely winner at The Crucible is someone who has already won there before or at least made the final. That applies to 8 of the last 10, with six of those already having their name on the trophy.

Past winner: 6pts
Beaten finalist: 2pts
Reached quarters/semis: 1pt
Not gone beyond last 16: 1pt

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Last Year

This is a slightly unexpected trend but perhaps has some logic in terms of hunger. It seems that those who fell below expectations one year come back strongly 12 months later. The exact stat is that eight of the last 10 winners hadn't made the one table set-up (i.e. reached the semis) the year before.

It applied to Kyren Wilson in 2024. Although he'd enjoyed an impressive run of results in Sheffield, in 2023 he'd gone out in round two. Determined to make his mark last year, he went all the way and won it.

Won last year: 1pt
Reached semis last year: 1pt
Didn't reach semis last year: 8pts

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Current Form

We need to reflect latest well-being so here's a stat to measure form coming in to Sheffield and it's a strong one: 8 of the last 10 Crucible winners had made at least a semi-final in one of their previous three starts on tour.

Kyren Wilson had made the last four of the German Masters three starts earlier so ticked this box.

Made a semi-final in one of previous three starts: 8pts
Not reached a semi in one of previous three starts: 2pts

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World Ranking Win

How important is it for a prospective world champion to have shown their mettle by winning a ranking event earlier that season?

Brecel actually added to this trend but Wilson didn't last year. However, the stats show that a ranking win earlier in the campaign helps.

Won a ranking title this season: 7pts
Not won a ranking title this season: 3pts

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Fatigue

A long, gruelling season can be detrimental in any sport and it certainly applies in snooker too. Judd Trump, due to getting to the business end of tournaments so often, had played 104 matches before the 2021 World Championship.

Perhaps a victim of his own success, he was in the 'red zone' when arriving at The Crucible and fatigue could have been a contributing factor in his 13-11 loss to Shaun Murphy in the quarters. He'd only played 83 matches when winning in 2019 and 68 when reaching the 2022 final.

The stat that taps into workload is that 8 of the last 10 Crucible winners had played 100 or fewer matches that season. It's not ideal to be a little undercooked either and Brecel was one of just two of the last 10 to have played under 50.

Kyren Wilson had played 93 before his win last season so although he'd been busy, he fell into that 50-100 bracket.

Played over 100 matches this season: 1pts
Played between 50 and 100 matches this season: 7pts
Played under 50 matches this season: 2pts

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Crucible expectations

Finally, I want a stat that rewards players who always seem to overperform at the Crucible but deducts points from those who perennialy fall short of expectations.

The classic case is Neil Robertson, who despite being one of the perennial favourites hasn't made it to the semi-finals since 2014.

Therefore, to get a guide that translates into points, I've looked at how each player performed in relation to their seeding.

Put crudely, the No.1 seed is expected to win, the No.2 seed to lose in the final, seeds 3 and 4 to lose in the semis, seeds 5-8 to go out in the quarters and seeds 9-16 to perish in round two. So, if a sixth seed made the last four, he'd be overperforming. Conversely, if a third seed lost in the last eight, he'd be underperforming.

Using five years of evidence I've scored each player on whether they overperformed, underperformed or met expectations (e.g. a seventh seed reaching the quarter-finals but then being beaten).

Robertson gets hammered here as he's underperformed in each of his last five Crucible visits so racks up -10 (5 x -2). Fun fact: had he enjoyed an excellent record over his last five appearances, he would have come out top of these trends!

By contrast, Jak Jones gets +4 after overperforming in the last two years: quarter-finalist in 2023 and beaten finalist last year.

Underperforming: -2pts per year
Overperforming: +2 points each year
Meeting expectations: 0pts

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The final scores

Right, let's get to the exciting bit!!

The final scores are in and, drumroll, these are the leading tallies:

50 John Higgins
48 Kyren Wilson, Mark Selby
44 Judd Trump
37 Ronnie O'Sullivan
36 Luca Brecel
35 Neil Robertson, Barry Hawkins
34 Shaun Murphy
32 Mark Williams
31 Mark Allen, Ding Junhui, Si Jiahui 
28 Jak Jones

Blimey, who would have thought that Higgins would top these standings when, in September of last year, he (very briefly) dropped out of the top 16 in the world rankings for the first time in 29 years and seemingly couldn't get over the line anymore in tight matches.

But he returns to the Crucible this year as third seed and fresh off victory at the Tour Championship in Manchester.

That win was his second in four tournaments and his latest form reads Win-Semi-QF-Win-QF.

Still 49 (just, he turns 50 a couple of weeks after the final), Higgins won this tournament in 1998, 2007, 2009 and 2011. 

If that seems a long time ago, he continues to show that he's a Crucible specialist and scores trends points for outperforming his seeding in each of the last three years by making a semi and two quarter-finals.

And if surviving 17 days seems a slog, it helps that he's pretty lightly-raced this season having played 56 matches, according to Cuetracker.

That compares to Kyren Wilson's 81 and Mark Selby's 80. Judd Trump has played 89.

That trio occupy Nos. 2-4 in the trends and this top four of Higgins, Wilson, Selby and Trump are some way clear of the rest.

If the draw goes to plan, Higgins (3) would play Trump (2) in the the bottom half semi while Wilson (1) and Selby (4) are on course to meet in the top half.

So, if it seems a surprise that Higgins is the No.3 seed this year, the trends reveal why! And, on the numbers, 14/115.00 looks generous. 

As with last year, I'll back a player from each half. So it's Higgins at 14s in the bottom half while, as this is a trends piece, I have to acknowledge the Crucible curse (no first-time winner has ever defended) and back Selby at 11/2 in the top.

There's a new trend/curse emerging that Tour Championship winners do poorly at the Crucible but we don't have 10 years' worth of form in that event yet as it was only introduced in 2019.

If you put something in it, Selby may appeal more than Higgins given that the Scot beat the Englishman in this year's final a couple of weeks ago.

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