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Rowing: USA can deny Team GB in Men's Eight
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Cycling: Punishing Road Race course may surprise 6/52.20 van der Poel
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Athletics: 40/141.00 Ferdinand Omanyala can become Fastest Man on Earth
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Swimming: 15/82.88 Kaylee McKeown best bet to claim Medley gold
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GB Eight looks shaky
After a dismal Tokyo 2020, Team GB's rowers have had a more promising Olympics in Paris, but golds have been harder to come by. There is pressure, then, on the Men's Eight, to add to the haul. Great Britain (11/102.11) have only been beaten twice in this Olympic cycle, and dominated their heat to qualify for Saturday's final.
GB were, though, more than seven seconds slower than the USA 11/102.11) in the other heat. And this season the USA have been the coming force. Seemingly an afterthought, the USA left it until the final Olympic qualification regatta in May to qualify a boat for the event, but only a few days after came second to GB in the World Cup by just a fifth-of-a-second.
The heart says GB, but the head says USA and at the same odds I have to take a chance on the new guys on the block.
Oppose two vans in Men's Road Race
The Men's Cycling Road Race is more open than the betting suggests, on a punishing 273km course that features 13 official climbs (treble that number if including unofficial climbs), culminating in a hilly, sometimes cobbled, circuit ridden three times round Montmartre, before a 9.5km flat section to the finish at the Trocadero in sight of the Eiffel Tower.
Mathieu van der Poel (NETHERLANDS) (6/52.20) is the rightful favourite and is perfectly suited to the course, but there are some doubts about his form, and Wout van Aert (BELGIUM) (7/24.50) will also relish the test, provided he is not hampered by in-fighting in a Belgium team that also features Remco Evenepoel (BELGIUM) (5/16.00).
A valid case can be made for several others, including Alberto Bettiol (ITALY) (40/141.00), Biniam Girmay (ERITREA) (22/123.00), Michael Matthews (AUSTRALIA) (40/141.00), Mads Pedersen (DENMARK) (13/27.50), Tom Pidcock (GB) (35/136.00), and Julian Alaphilippe (FRANCE) (15/116.00). But it's worth remembering that, with no radios and team setups very different to what these riders are used to, the Olympic road race can often throw up surprises, so it's an event to bet in with caution.
If all riders were at their best, this would be a shootout between the two vans - der Poel and Aert. Given the likelihood of complications in the race, though, it's worth going for a bigger priced rider, and Alberto Bettiol will be given more freedom by the peloton than others in this list.
Back Alberto Bettiol in Men's Road Race
Crouser no certainty in Men's Shot Put
The Athletics programme starts to ramp-up now, and Ryan Crouser (USA) (2/51.40) is a short price to win the Men's Shot Put. Twice Olympic and World Champion, and world record holder, it's hard to bet against him, but two putters have gone longer than Crouser this year, including Joe Kovacs (USA) (10/34.33) and Leonardo Fabbri (ITALY) (16/54.20). At the odds, Kovacs looks the bet.
Back Joe Kovacs in Men's Shot Put
Noah Lyles a weak favourite in Men's 100m
Given his high profile, it's little wonder that reigning World Champion Noah Lyles (USA) (5/61.84) is favourite for the Men's 100m. But this event is going through an unusually open period, where the last four major championships have seen four different winners, and where - this season alone - 13 different sprinters have provided at least one of the top 20 times in the world. Lyles would not be a surprise winner, but he is better over the 200m, and at the odds, punters would do well to look elsewhere for value.
Fastest in the world this year, nascent star Kishane Thompson (JAMAICA) (7/52.40) has the look of someone with as yet unknown potential to do something special. It would be no surprise to see him emerge as the dominant world force in the discipline, but again, those are short odds.
A speculative punt is the recommendation, on Ferdinand Omanyala (KENYA) (40/141.00). His best this year places him second in the world and, whilst that win in his national trials looks an outlier performance, it's a mark he has bettered before. Not the most consistent of competitors - which is reflected in his odds - Omanyala is nonetheless capable of winning this open competition.
Back Ferdinand Omanyala in Men's 100m
Dressel and Ledecky chase more golds
With only two days left in the pool, four gold medals are decided today, with Caeleb Dressel (USA) (5/61.84) hoping to continue his Olympic comeback with victory in the 100m Butterfly. Those odds look about right, but with several swimmers likely to join the 49-second club in the final, backers of Dressel might face a nail-biting last length.
Katie Ledecky (USA) (1/71.14), meanwhile, should win the Women's 800m Freestyle, although those odds look very short with Ariarne Titmus (AUSTRALIA) (4/15.00) in the field, who was only half-a-second adrift in Tokyo.
15/82.88 McKeown can take Medley showdown
One of the best contests of the Olympics is likely in the Women's 200m Individual Medley, where we should see the much anticipated clash that we were denied at the 2023 World Championships between Summer McIntosh (CANADA) (13/82.63), Kaylee McKeown (AUSTRALIA) (15/82.88), Kate Douglass (USA) (15/82.88), and Alex Walsh (USA) (9/110.00).
Totalling up these rivals' PBs for each element of the medley sees only half-a-second between them, meaning this will come down to margins.
At the odds, Walsh is an attractive proposition, but her finishing speed is her weakness, and she is likely to be swam down by Kaylee KcKeown on the last leg.
Back Kaylee McKeown in Women's 200m Individual Medley
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