There are a few angles in Redcar's 16:35: a positive trainer change (Beltor); one returning from a good run over jumps (My Guardian Angel); and a supposed improver to be opposed (Charles de Mille). What tends to trump them all is a thrice-raced, gently-handled handicap debutante and we have one of those here. Past Forgetting is as well-bred as you'd expect a six-figure purchase to be and can already lay claim to form that puts her ahead of a mark of 72. She chased home Nancy From Nairobi on her second start, beating the rest very much against the grain. Her only subsequent outing was typical third-run stuff and probably came in a decent race of its type. If the average improvement for a Luca Cumani charge moving into handicaps is forthcoming then Past Forgetting will prove very hard to beat.
Any value looks to have been squeezed from the better races at Goodwood. It's only the 16:55 there that looks to offer a genuinely enticing bet. The context of a large field has blinded the layers just enough to allow Ganymede to come in at a relatively big price. He's progressive and in essence completely unexposed. While much of the focus on his recent upsurge has been on the application of blinkers, just as influential has been the drop back to six and seven furlongs. In truth, six looked a little too sharp at Salisbury last time, though he's been brought back up in distance today so further progress is anticipated if Ganymede gets the benefit of a clear passage.
At Perth there are a good few Gordon Elliott runners and, as is usually the case, they are priced up a bit shorter than they ought to be. Tico is the one that pushes us into a bet. He's the likeliest winner of the 17:45 but should in no way be half the price of Island Heights. In every way, bar an absence since March, Island Heights has the profile of one that deserves plenty of respect. A winning pointer with loads of stamina in his pedigree, Island Heights won on his first try over two and a half miles under Rules and suffered through circumstance on his only start since. He's up to three miles today, which will suit in the long term. If he's ready to show as much, Island Heights will give Tico a stern test.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Past Forgetting @ 4.67/2 in the 16:35 Redcar
Back Ganymede @ 8.615/2 in the 16:55 Goodwood
Back Island Heights @ 6.05/1 in the 17:45 Perth
