The North has avoided the worst of the recent wet weather and that fact forms part of the basis for our first bet. Oyster Shell (14:50) is returning from a summer break and needs the emphasis on speed at the best of times, so he's better off here than somewhere in the sodden South. He proved relatively consistent in 2013/4 and some of his best form appeals as pretty strong now- his best effort came when giving weight and a beating to Daymar Bay, Pearls Legend and Bullet Street at Ludlow. Oyster Shell is well handicapped on that form and rates as the likeliest winner should he return fit enough to do himself justice.
Tidal Way (15:25) was the subject of a gamble- ultimately foiled- on his return at Bangor a couple of weeks back but the sentiment shouldn't be forgotten: he was travelling well that day when he unseated Kielan Woods three out. He's in off the same mark today, 2 lb lower than for his most recent win and over the same C&D as his very best effort (close fifth from an 11-lb higher mark just less than 12 months ago). This race is a more competitive one than Bangor, though not so much so that Tidal Way should be allowed to go off at twice the price.
The final race on the card (17:35) has some eye-catching stable changes (Kaysersburg) and some interesting stables (Fourth Estate). Still, it's Nexius who interests us most. He was steeply on the up when winning a couple of handicaps in the spring, making light of a stone's rise to win at Carlisle on the second occasion. He's up a further 8 lb for that, lenient on the evidence presented let alone his useful Flat form, while the step up to 22 furlongs will be a positive if anything. Fitness is the only unknown, though the general good form of the Dalgleish yard does plenty to allay any concerns.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
All at Wetherby
Back Oyster Shell @ 4.216/5 in the 14:50
Back Tidal Way @ 5.69/2 in the 15:25
Back Nexius @ 4.3100/30 in the 17:35
