We start at Ludlow, which plays host to a strong card for the track, focussing on the mares' handicap hurdle at 14:40. There are a good number of unexposed sorts in the race, potentially making for a tricky betting heat, though at morning prices the risk is definitely worth it in the case of On The Off Chance. Her profile is one we're all familiar with, with her career so far consisting of three fairly quiet runs in novice hurdles. On her latest start, On The Off Chance did show more of what she's about in a race won by Abruzzi at Towcester, travelling as well as any and just backing out of things in third when crashing out at the last. Assuming that tumble hasn't left a mark, On The Off Chance can make the anticipated step up for the switch to handicaps, with her initial BHA mark of 105 looking to underplay her ability. The additional emphasis on stamina isn't to be taken as a negative, either, given she's by Presenting and is a half-sister to Cantlow and Darkness, both fully effective at three miles.
There's also plenty of competitive fare on the all-chase card at Leicester, as you might expect with the recent diet of jumps racing being so meagre. The handicap at 15:00 fits into that category, with three last-time-out winners and a number of others in reasonable heart among the 11 runners. Material Boy and Topaz Collonges are understandably popular, though the market looks to have underplayed the chances of Trojan Sun. He took a while to get going over hurdles and it's been more of the same over fences, but he clicked at Huntingdon last time, running out a comfortable winner over the same trip as today's race. A 7 lb rise certainly doesn't look enough to stop Trojan Sun going close if he's in a similar mood today, so quotes of around 7.26/1 look to be on the generous side for Tom Symonds' charge.
Finally, we take in the 16:00 at Leicester, a novice over just shy of three miles. The market correctly has Safran de Cotte and The Musical Guy atop the market, but perhaps not by as much as is justified, at least in the case of the latter. A half-brother to Hello Bud, staying chases were always going to bring out the best in The Musical Guy, something he showed beyond doubt over an extended three miles at Folkestone on his chasing debut, responding very well to pressure as he chased home Godsmejudge (subsequently second in the Grade 3). Extreme trips are ultimately what The Musical Guy will need to show his full worth, but on testing ground at a stiff track such as this there's no reason why he can't do himself justice today and record his win over jumps.
Timeform SmartPlays
Back On The Off Chance @ 7.06/1 in the 14:40 Ludlow
Back Trojan Sun @ 7.26/1 in the 15:00 Leicester
Back The Musical Guy @ 3.953/1 in the 16:00 Leicester
