The opening sprint handicap for amateur riders looks an interesting betting heat at Carlisle (14:00) where it would be prudent and hopefully profitable to side with Silly Billy. He hasn't taken long to find his feet following his recent switch to the care of Brian Ellison, and there was much to like about his recent win at Beverley on only his second start for his new handler. What was most notable for today's purposes was how strongly he travelled on that occasion, suggesting the drop to six furlongs he encounters here should be well within his grasp, and he can make it two from three for new connections and get us off to a winning start.
We remain at Carlisle to cast our eye over the staying handicap at 15:30, where Embsay Crag looks to have strong claims. He had been a little subdued for the yard of Philip Kirby until his last run at Pontefract ten days ago, where he announced himself emphatically. It would be easy to over-estimate the significance of his facile victory there in what was not a particularly competitive contest, but the timefigure posted suggests there was more than enough substance to back up the abundance of style. He should prove hard to beat under his penalty, although he may not have it entirely his own way today with the hat-trick seeking Silver Samba set to give him the most to think about.
We head to Catterick Bridge for our final bet of the day, finishing where we started with another competitive sprint handicap (17:15). It may not prove a profitable strategy to side with top weights in such contests in the long term but Gottcher looks to be an exception to that rule here. He has a lot of weight to carry but on the back of impressive and resolute efforts at Musselburgh and Hamilton on his last two starts he looks up to the task and can complete a hat-trick in these contests. He is up the best part of a stone from his original winning mark, but he looks to have enough in hand over his rivals to defy their advances and the handicapper's best efforts to halt his progress. Megaleka will find the trip and ground to her liking today and could be a danger if she improves from her second at Yarmouth last time.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Silly Billy @ 3.953/1 in the 14:00 at Carlisle
Back Embsay Crag @ 3.052/1 in the 15:30 at Carlisle
Back Gottcher @ 2.588/5 in the 17:15 at Catterick Bridge
