Red Invader has shaped well the last twice, indicating that he can certainly win off his current handicap mark, and he makes plenty of appeal in Southwell's seven-furlong handicap at 15:00. Red Invader has started life in handicaps from a lowly mark and he has the potential to be much better than he has shown so far, a steady pace the last twice ensuring that he wasn't seen to best effect. The Charlie Hills-trained colt has been ridden by an extremely inexperienced rider the last twice and will surely benefit from stronger handling this afternoon, and, though the switch to Fibresand represents something of an unknown, he is worth backing to register a first career success.
We split a couple of bets on the Fibresand with one on Turf as we put forward Calculated Risk in the 18-furlong handicap at Pontefract (15:40). Calculated Risk was well beaten over hurdles in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival but he had won at Sedgefield on his prior start, showing a good attitude under pressure, and he looks well treated on his return to the Flat, racing from a mark just 6 lb higher than the one he defied at Ayr last September. The booking of Ryan Moore is a big positive and Calculated Risk simply looks a cut above his rivals.
Mark Johnston has mopped up a lot of prizes on the all-weather this winter, particularly at Southwell, and he can strike again with Right of Appeal in the one-and-a-half mile handicap at 16:05. Right of Appeal showed significant improvement to win on his all-weather debut at Wolverhampton, clearly relishing the marked step up in trip to a mile and a half (had previously been raced at six furlongs), and a 13 lb rise in the weights looks fully justified based on his emphatic six-length success. Right of Appeal started life on a mark which vastly underestimated his ability and he looks the type to run up a sequence, the switch to Fibresand arguably a positive based on the good record of his sire Dubawi.
Timeform UK SmartPlays:
Back Red Invader @ 4.77/2 in the 15:00 at Southwell
Back Calculated Risk @ 2.6413/8 in the 15:40 at Pontefract
Back Right of Appeal @ 2.447/5 in the 16:05 at Southwell
