The 15:00 at Southwell is a perfect illustration of today's approach. This is as ordinary a handicap as you'll see, though it allows us to take a chance on one who has shown promise while escaping the attention of many. Last summer Mount Welcome won off a higher mark than the one he runs from today and, though he's apparently struggled badly since there have been better signs on each of his last two starts. He travelled well in spite of a ropey round of jumping at Huntingdon at the end of August and was again undone by jumping, through one bad error, at Worcester last time. He'd have probably finished second otherwise on the second occasion. A clearer round of jumping, which Southwell's easier fences could well allow, would see Mount Welcome go close.
Warwick's 15:45 is a genuinely competitive race, at least in terms of the first two in the betting, last-time winners Finding Your Feet and Bathwick Man. The market thinks Finding Your Feet is the likelier winner, but we disagree. Finding Your Feet had the chance to kick on from winning off 103 last autumn, but didn't. There's little doubt that his recent win represented a career-best effort, though a correspondingly high BHA mark will make things harder.
Bathwick Man's position is slightly more favourable. We know almost precisely how good he is, though that has been good enough to compete from this sort of mark already. He'd been in reasonable form prior to taking another step forward last time to win and, under conditions that ought to prove suitable, he should give his running again and force Finding Your Feet to improve.
Back at Southwell, the 16:10 contains a couple of last-time winners Solitary Girl and Oxalido. An ordinary win is almost always given more weight than a creditable defeat, even when it isn't justified. That's why we're recommending Lecale Lad instead at the prices. Obviously his fitness needs to be taken on trust, though he shaped well in a warm Chepstow handicap on Grand National day when last seen. There's a case for marking point winner Lecale Lad among the best in that race and the best in that race would be a strong favourite here. As such, Lecale Lad is well worth siding with at odds above 6.05/1.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Mount Welcome @ 9.417/2 in the 15:00 Southwell
Back Bathwick Man @ 4.47/2 in the 15:45 Warwick
Back Lecale Lad @ 6.86/1 in the 16:10 Southwell
