We head to the opening race of Exeter's season for our first bet, in which Twelve Roses has the potential to be well ahead of his mark in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle (14:20). Although he is a relatively short price he has never been out of the frame in his first four starts, and crucially for today's purposes he goes well when fresh. He won a maiden hurdle at Towcester in May on his last outing, and his initial handicap mark of 119 looks more than fair for today's purposes. Trainer Kim Bailey has had a bright start to this campaign with three winners already this month, and Twelve Roses has it well within his compass to make it four.
It's a sprint handicap at Ayr next (14:40) in which recent C&D winner Compton Heights is likely to be a warm order at the top of the market. It is better to side with Tadalavil, currently trading at a tasty 8.88/1, who showed definite signs of a revival at Musselburgh last time. He shaped with real promise and was closing all the time, but possibly found the minimum trip too short for him; the extra furlong today will certainly play to his advantage. He has been lightly raced this season and is 11 lb lower than his last winning mark, and he has won in these conditions before. He is worth taking a chance on and could surprise many if he's in the right frame of mind.
The feature race back at Exeter is the final contest under consideration today, and the three-mile handicap chase (15:20) could well go to Standing Ovation. Having shown signs of promise in his pointing, bumper and hurdle days, David Pipe's runner shaped with real promise in his second outing over fences at Newton Abbot in June. He immediately went into the notebook as an improver on the back of that performance, but fell at Uttoxeter last time when a well-backed favourite. If he can iron out the inconsistencies in his jumping, today might be the day he realises his potential, which has always looked to be considerable.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Twelve Roses @ 2.789/5 in the 14:20 at Exeter
Back Tadalavil @ 8.88/1 in the 14:40 at Ayr
Back Standing Ovation @ 3.5551/20 in the 15:20 at Exeteer
