Haydock's Superior Mile, run earlier this month, could have a real bearing on this weekend's action, with Top Notch Tonto favourite for the Cambridgeshire on the strength of his win and Montiridge bigger for the Joel Stakes (14:40) than would otherwise have been the case after finishing a disappointing fifth. In both instances, we're taking a view in line with the form of the Superior Mile being shaky- that means opposing Top Notch Tonto and advising Montiridge.
Montiridge had met with defeat only once this season prior to Haydock, when Gale Force Ten snatched the Jersey Stakes from him in the final strides. Given his win record, it's a surprise that he's not tried even a Group 2 hitherto, but he'd looked more than up to making the transition before the Supreme Mile and, in the grand scheme, he can be forgiven one bad run, which came on softer ground and in a race that wasn't run to suit.
The big race of the day is the Fillies' Mile (15:15), which in truth looks a substandard Group 1 overall. There is a clear exception, however. Rizeena is already a dual pattern-race winner, including a success at the highest level in Ireland last time which puts her well clear on adjusted Timeform ratings. She's duly favourite today, but perhaps not as short as she ought to be. The reason for this is presumably over unknowns- trip, course, the effect the placing of the stalls today will have and so on- but we can put the stamina doubts to rest at least. Pedigree has Rizeena staying middle distances next year, while the manner in which she's often shaped suggests that she's more about stamina than speed, for all she has a fine turn of foot evidenced most strongly when scoring at the Curragh having gone as high as 300.0 in running. Basically, Rizeena is a 2.26/5 shot currently trading nearer 2.89/5 and while that's the case you're advised to bet accordingly.
Rizeena's situation where price is concerned is flipped when looking at the Silver Cambridgeshire (17:00). Our idea of the likeliest winner of the race is Morpheus, an improving three-year-old who might well derive benefit from stepping up to nine furlongs today. However, he was selected on the proviso that he'd be available at a double-figure price or thereabouts, so 6.25/1 makes little appeal. Instead, a win-and-place bet on Dream Walker seems more logical given the current lie of the land. He's four from five so far for Brian Ellison, the sole defeat coming at Chester. Yes, he's 25 lb higher than when he joined the stable, but to look at it in more relevant terms, he's only 4 lb higher (penalised) than when winning convincingly at Ayr last week. He'll be coming strongly at the finish if his record up to now is anything to go by and will prove difficult to prevent from getting into the first four at least.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
All at Newmarket
Back Montiridge @ 4.216/5 in the 14:40
Back Rizeena @ 2.829/5 in the 15:15
Back Dream Walker @ 19.537/2 to win and 4.67/2 to place in the 17:00