Our first engagement is the fillies' handicap that opens the card (13:40), which like many of the races today has been starved of some of its interest by a deluge of non-runners following last night's rain. Free Rein is therefore nothing like the price we'd have anticipated, though it's all relative to her chance now that the likes of Etaab and Provenance are out. Those three had rather stood out, so as the sole survivor Free Rein deserves to be a clear favourite. She already has course form, an encouraging fourth here on debut before winning at Newcastle a couple of weeks back. Free Rein and the well-bred Cloud Line came 11 lengths clear of the rest that day and if you subscribe to the view that both are potentially useful, a BHA mark of 75 looks extremely lenient for Free Rein now she enters handicaps.
Five non-runners haven't made quite such a dent in the sprint handicap at 15:15, which started out with 20 declared. Golden Steps was, and still is, the one we're most interested in. He's run four times up to now, winning twice on good ground and finishing second on softer on the other two occasions. Don't be fooled, though: Golden Steps has got better with each run and has already shown abundant stamina for this trip in doing so. He'll need that today, this stiff track and soft ground likely to demands these sprinters see it out thoroughly. We know Golden Steps will; we know he'll handle the ground; we know he comes here an improver. He should be favourite.
A field of 10 has become one of half a dozen in the closer (17:00). The absentees include Billingsgate, who might have been our selection another day. That leaves the route clear for Potentate, the horse we'd have viewed as a significant danger but now deserves to be seen as the likeliest winner. Like Golden Steps he's four starts into his career, though his improvement has been longer in coming, taking a loping stride forward to win a maiden at Chepstow last time. That was probably a good race for the track and Potentate coming out on top might well have hinged on the uncontested lead he was granted, though the BHA handicapper has taken a notably dim view, awarding him a mark of 77. We think that's lenient.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
All at Newmarket
Back Free Rein @ 3.613/5 in the 13:40
Back Golden Steps @ 8.27/1 in the 15:15
Back Potentate @ 5.14/1 in the 17:00
