Handicaps on the round course at Goodwood are more white-knuckle than most, the scrimmaging that goes on accounting for the chances of many, but when you see a horse with Blue Surf's (13:55) course record at something approaching double-figure odds the risk becomes far more inviting. Blue Surf is only one from four here, but two of those other runs were fine placed efforts (including one at this meeting last year) and, if you're willing to merely scratch the surface, his overall profile is that of a progressive handicapper. For example, neither run this year has seen him to best effect, but even so he shaped as though still ahead of his mark when a non-staying seventh in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot. Evidently more at home under today's conditions (C&D winner), Blue Surf has a greater chance of success than current odds imply- so long as he doesn't suffer from a luckless run.
The Lennox Stakes (15:05) looks a really interesting heat, with milers and sprinters meeting at the intermediate distance of seven furlongs, while there are several up-and-comers challenging the more established performers. It might be stretching it ever so slightly to put dual Group 3 winner Producer in the newcomer category, but it can't be denied that he's running better than he ever has. Since returning from Dubai, he's won both his starts at this trip with essentially career-best efforts, having today's favourite Aljamaaheer behind him at Leicester on the first occasion. A C&D winner in the Supreme Stakes last August, Producer looks to have plenty in his favour here and, should he find any improvement at all, he ought to be favourite.
Another feature of Goodwood's topography that could become significant this week is the speed of the straight course, particularly in races over five furlongs. There's such a race at 17:25 today, so it makes sense to side with raw speed. With that being the case, more solid than a straight win bet on the respected Lady Gibraltar, who might need a bit of luck in running, could be an each-way punt on strong traveller Jedward. She upped her game around this time last year and has done so again of late, finishing second in a couple of relatively strong handicaps in Scotland, the first of which over Musselburgh's bare five furlongs which is a test of speed almost on a par with today's contest. Jedward's previous run at this course can be excused, coming as it did over a less-than-ideal six furlongs, and she should be thereabouts again granted conditions that look to be most suitable.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
All at Goodwood
Back Blue Surf @ 7.613/2 in the 13:55
Back Producer @ 5.85/1 in the 15:05
Back Jedward @ 12.011/1 to win and @ 3.613/5 to place in the 17:25
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