Once in a while you see a ride that is a complete head-scratcher, and that was certainly the case with Cassells Rock in the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last month.
For most of the race I thought that the Tony Martin five-year-old, backed from 7/1 to 5/2 throughout the day but a late drifter from 3.55/2 to 6.25/1 in the final five minutes before the off, was travelling best and much the likeliest winner.
But then his jockey literally allowed the horse to coast home in the final 2f, with one just slight flick of the whip to encourage him otherwise. If you haven't seen the ride, it was a bizarre one. Go and take a look.
To be fair, the stewards inquired and jockey Billy Lee said the horse found nothing after travelling too freely. Even so, I would have liked to have seen a bit more effort from the saddle, myself.
There and then, I immediately decided that I would back the horse if he turned up for this race, which is a bit of a "muggy" thing to do.
And possibly even more so when he has been drawn in 36 and with his rider likely to be put up 2lb overweight . Furthermore, second-guessing the Martin yard, which has a good record in the UK this season, is not usually recommended.
But at odds of 40.039/1 or bigger - the price really is everything in betting - I am happy to take my chances.
Granted, an outside berth is hardly a positive. But Never Can Tell won from trap 36 in 2011 and plenty of horses have run well from high draws in this race down the years.
And if Leigh Roche - who is, according to seasoned watchers of Irish racing, a "good, solid jockey" who has also won in England this season - does put up overweight then it wouldn't bother me too greatly if, I suspect, his mount has a lot more in hand of the assessor than 2lb (his minimum weight this season is 8st 4lb and he is set to do 8st 2lb here).
On the evidence of Cassells Rock's second to Toe The Line at Leopardstown last season, with Silwana and Bayan immediately behind him, then he is an exceptionally well-treated horse. He has placed form in big-field handicaps over hurdles, the drying ground is another positive and he travels like a dream (though that quickly turned into a nightmare last time....).
For all the doubts, I think that he will run a huge race - he certainly makes more appeal than his shorter-priced, and more obvious, stablemates Quick Jack and Heartbreak City - though I want another horse on my side in the shape of Noble Silk at 30.029/1.
He is far more straightforward in that he came back to form when third in a good time on his latest start, is on a fair mark, and has form in big-field staying handicaps on decent ground, most recently when fourth in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot.
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Our Joy must have been a disappointment to connections after such a promising debut but she ran well when fifth at Doncaster last time and the slightly longer trip of the 14:00 should suit.
But I am not in any particular rush to get involved in a 15-runner nursery paying only three places, and nor for that matter the loftier 2yo prizes of the Autumn Stakes at 14:35 and the Dewhurst at 15:10.
Gifted Master and Air Force Blue would be my respective fancies for those races, particularly on good ground, but not strongly enough to part with my cash.
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Over at York, Azraff could have his optimum conditions in the opener at 13:45 and he is well worth a poke at 11.010/1.
You get the impression that 1m2f just stretches his stamina and that more patience over 1m1f on ground with some ease in it will suit.
He has occasionally looked an awkward ride - he has traded at 2/1 or less in-running in four of his six starts this season - but Adam Kirby is likely to delay his challenge much later than Martin Harley did when going for home too soon over 1m at Doncaster last time.
But in any case that was a decent run in the circumstances, and a subsequent 1lb drop in the weights a bonus.
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Earth Drummer ran an excellent race when eighth in the Cambridgeshire considering he could never get into the race from his stands' rail draw and also met trouble in running. If things had panned out better then he wouldn't have been far off the winner, instead of being beaten four lengths.
You sense that was the very much the seasonal plan for the horse - and the first-time hood he wore there has been taken off here - and ideally he wants a shorter trip than the extended 1m2f of the 14:15.
But this smaller field is unlikely to be a burn-up - and he has one decent piece of form over 1m4f in Dubai anyway - and I am convinced that he has the ability to win off a mark of 99. The problem is the price, so I will leave him alone.
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The 6f listed contest at 14:50 is a very tight race and I won't be playing, but I am going to side with market leader George Bowen in the 15:25.
He looks a fast-progressing sprinter and a 5lb rise in the weights for his narrow second to Tatlisu in the Ayr Silver Cup looks fair enough, as the winner is a smart if inconsistent handicapper and they pulled two-and-a-half lengths clear of the third, and the ease in the ground will suit. And Jack Garritty, who rode Tatlisu, is decent valuable for his 3lb claim.
He is by far the likeliest winner, and at 8.415/2 or bigger I think he is a fair punt. I see Foxtrot Romeo is down to a mark of 93, but I can't bring myself to give him another chance.
Recommended Bets
Back Cassells Rock at 40.039/1 and Noble Silk at 30.029/1 in the 15:50 at Newmarket
Back Azraff at 11.010/1 in the 13:45 at York
Back George Bowen at 8.415/2 in the 15:25 at York
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