Channel 4 Racing Tips: Astaire can star at Newmarket

Richard Hughes takes the ride aboard Sea Shanty in the 15:15

"I really liked the attitude of Astaire when he won at York in May and have been waiting for him to reappear since."

Back Astaire at 9.08/1 and above 

It's day one of the July Meeting at HQ and, with the Channel 4 cameras in attendance, our man Tony Calvin is once again attempting to find big-priced winners on the card...

The four televised races on Channel 4 could have been framed by bookmakers such is their level of trickinessand trappiness  - a non-runner in the eight-runner opener, or the 16-runner 1m2f handicap would really put the cherry on their cake - but I think there are a couple of small-stakes betting angles.

I wouldn't be surprised if any of the seven runners won the Princess of Wales's Stakes at 14:40 - though Wild Coco would be the marginal selection if pressed - and the same comment pretty much applies to the 13:40 where Dare To Achieve appeals most at a push. Well, more like a shove.

Incidentally, what price a non-runner in the 1m5f opener, or the 15:15? There is nothing more galling than backing a horse in a race where a withdrawal affects the place terms.

But that is the beauty of exchange betting, as the original place terms stand in the event of non-runners. So if you back a horse place-only in an eight-runner race, for example, and one or more of the runners comes out, you still get paid out on the first three places with an applicable reduction factor.

And I think there is a very strong argument for traditional bookmakers following suit. After all, I can't readily recall the terms of a contract being changed after it has been signed, which effectively is what a betting slip is.


Newmarket, 15:15 
However, I digress.  Back to punting opportunites, and Sea Shanty in the 15:15 is interesting.
I sided with him at a big price in the Britannia, and he initially disappointed me a bit in only finishing 11th of 27 there, as I thought a strongly-run 1m would see his seasonal progression continue.

However, it didn't pan out quite like that, and in fact the way he finished - I've gone back and watched the video a few times - strongly suggested he needed further, hence he is tried over 1m2f today. Now, on breeding, he looks a very unlikely stayer. But his run-style suggests otherwise.

It is a slight negative that the handicapper hasn't eased him slightly for that Ascot run - perhaps he watched the video of his run a few times, too - but Red Avenger, who re-opposes here, ran a very similar race to him at Ascot and he came out and won over this trip at Haydock last time. 

Let's hope Sea Shanty can repeat that feat, though it is clearly an incredibly competitive handicap. He is worth chancing at 15.014/1 or bigger though.

Newmarket, 14:10
The July Stakes at 14:10has historically been one of the poorest Group 2s in the racing calendar, but it looks one of the stronger renewals this year.

To be perfectly honest, I don't think you can punt in this race with any degree of confidence, with so many unexposed horses from the top stables in attendance, but I really liked the attitude of Astaire when he won at York in May and have been waiting for him to reappear since.

It is a concern that he hasn't raced since - Kevin Ryan was initially talking in terms of Royal Ascot after York, as well as the Gimcrack - but he clearly is in good order to be running here.

He won at 14-1 at York but Ryan called Astaire a "serious horse with a great attitude" after that win and there was substance to the form, as well as the confident post-race quotes, and he posted a pretty impressive speed figure there.

He looks worth chancing at odds of 9.08/1 or bigger. But this is a day for low stakes. And no non-runners, hopefully.

Recommended Bets  
Back Sea Shanty at 15.014/1 and above
Back Astaire at 9.08/1 and above


Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

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